Art Of Boring

In this episode, Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the Mawer Global Credit Opportunities Strategy, examines a fixed income backdrop reshaped by geopolitical escalation, an energy shock, and sharply changing interest-rate expectations. He explains why higher benchmark yields and modestly wider spreads still leave many parts of credit looking expensive, where Mawer is finding more selective value through bottom-up research, and why the strategy remains tilted toward shorter-duration, higher-quality credit. The conversation also explores AI-related bond issuance from hyperscalers, signs of strain in leveraged finance and private credit, and what a more fragile lending environment could mean for investors. Highlights: How geopolitical escalation and higher oil prices have pushed inflation concerns back to the forefront and reshaped rate expectations in major markets. Why higher benchmark yields have not been enough to make much of longer-duration or lower-quality credit compelling today. A look at two sel

In this episode, Institutional Portfolio Manager Kevin Minas and Investment Counsellor Stu Morrow examine the forces shaping markets in the first quarter of 2026. From the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on oil, inflation, and growth to the broadening AI disruption across software and asset-light business models, they explore how investors can stay thoughtful in an increasingly complex environment. The conversation covers stagflation risks, bond market dynamics, the role of gold as a hedge, and the portfolio adjustments being made as quality businesses face new tests of durability in a changing world order.   Key Highlights: • Middle East conflict and stagflation risks: The escalation in Iran has dominated Q1, with the Strait of Hormuz carrying a fifth of daily global oil and gas consumption. Beyond energy, the conflict threatens fertilizer supplies, semiconductor inputs, and global growth—raising the specter of stagflation as slowing growth meets rising inflation, limiting central banks

In this episode, global equity portfolio manager Paul Moroz examines how investors can navigate a market increasingly shaped by conflict, shifting narratives, and wider ranges of possible outcomes. He begins with the recent escalation in the Middle East and the market's relatively measured response, then considers the second-order effects that can matter just as much as the initial shock. The conversation also explores how recent AI-driven swings in software have revealed a market increasingly influenced by thematic flows and short-term sentiment, rather than the more measured process of weighing business fundamentals. Throughout, Paul returns to a central idea: good portfolio management is rarely about one big call, but about making many small, disciplined decisions within a diversified portfolio.   Highlights: Why the market's reaction to the recent escalation in the Middle East has remained relatively measured so far John Deere as a second-order effects case study: how rising oil and fertilizer costs ca

In this episode, U.S. equity portfolio manager Grayson Witcher explores what it means to invest exclusively in American businesses at a time when the U.S. is becoming more short‑term, more transactional, and more central to global change. He contrasts a shifting U.S. "extraction" mindset with China's longer-term industrial strategy and considers how that dynamic is reshaping globalization into a more regional, security-conscious world. The conversation then turns to portfolio implications: why the team has been reducing exposure to mature, highly penetrated software names facing intensifying competition and AI disruption, how the market's treatment of AI has evolved from hype to a more "show me the returns" phase, and where they see resilient opportunities. Highlights: How a more short-term, "extraction"-oriented U.S. policy stance—via tariffs, reshoring, and industrial policy—is altering incentives for companies and trading partners. The evolving nature of software moats in an AI world, including higher co

Wen Quan Cheong, co-manager of Mawer's emerging markets equity strategy, outlines four major themes shaping the opportunity set today. First, the "picks and shovels" of AI: upstream enablers such as advanced chip manufacturers, memory makers, and specialized chip-testing firms that are benefiting from structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chain. Second, companies that are actually converting AI investment into higher returns on capital. Third, the "Great Supply Chain Reshuffle," where national security concerns, tariffs, and "China plus one" strategies are driving a reconfiguration of strategic manufacturing infrastructure across Asia and the U.S. And finally, a broader universe of less obvious EM stories that illustrate how opportunity is evolving across regions and sectors as these forces play out.   Highlights: Why upstream AI enablers are seeing such powerful earnings leverage: how capacity cuts, equipment bottlenecks, and surging demand for DRAM, HBM, and NAND have flipped the memory market from overs

Equity analyst Alex Romaines joins the podcast to unpack "accounting shenanigans" and why getting from reported numbers to the economic truth of a business is so critical for long-term investors. Drawing on forensic accounting frameworks, he explains how a deep grounding in accounting shapes the way he interrogates financial statements—moving beyond compliance with standards to questions of judgment, incentives, and sustainability. The conversation discusses the issue of stock-based compensation: why adding it back to "adjusted" earnings can be misleading, how dilution and buybacks can quietly transfer wealth from outside shareholders to insiders, and practical ways investors can incorporate these real costs into valuation. Alex then highlights other red flags on his radar today—from lengthening depreciation schedules on fast-changing tech hardware, to vendor financing that may inflate revenues, to the quiet return of special purpose vehicles. Highlights: How a forensic accounting mindset helps investors mo

In a world where geopolitical tension, economic inequality, and technological change are all accelerating, what does it mean to be a long‑term, bottom‑up investor? In this episode, portfolio manager Paul Moroz explores how today's regime differs from the post‑crisis "Pax Americana" era. Drawing on history—from Shakespeare to ancient debt jubilees—he connects recurring human patterns of fear, greed, and class conflicts to today's tensions. The discussion then turns to specifics around how investors must adapt in a more volatile world, and how AI is emerging both as a powerful market force and as a tool that is reshaping the day‑to‑day work of investors. Highlights include: How recurring historical patterns—from Shakespeare's Coriolanus to ancient debt jubilees—shed light on today's tensions around inequality and financial repression How portfolio construction may need to adapt: broader diversification, smaller positions, heavy emphasis on risk management Why bottom‑up analysis still matters as much as ever,

In this episode, we sit down with equity analyst Joshua Samuel to explore how artificial intelligence and large language models (LLMs) are fundamentally reshaping the nature of competitive advantages tied to data. Josh presents a comprehensive framework for evaluating data moats in the modern era, breaking down four critical categories that can separate lasting advantages from temporary ones. The conversation examines how companies across sectors—from FinTech to defense—are leveraging data to drive better decision making and outcomes. He also addresses the flip side: where traditional data advantages are being eroded by AI's ability to synthesize information, and why trust and execution remain crucial even amongst data advantages. Key Highlights: AI systems now capture and analyze subconscious behavior patterns through clicks and scrolls, potentially knowing users better than they know themselves Traditional data moats in legal, medical, and scientific databases face existential threats as LLMs trained on h

In this episode, Investment Counsellor Stu Morrow and Institutional Portfolio Manager Kevin Minas examine the forces reshaping markets in the fourth quarter. From central banks navigating the shift toward policy normalization to equity leadership rotating beyond mega-cap AI stocks, they explore how a resilient but slowing economy is influencing investment decisions. The conversation covers evolving credit conditions, geopolitical developments including recent events in Venezuela, and the portfolio adjustments being made as valuations rise and late-cycle dynamics emerge. Key highlights: Global growth is moderating, labour markets are softening, and inflation is easing, giving central banks room to shift from restrictive policy toward gradual normalization. Steeper yield curves and very tight credit spreads leave bond investors with decent starting yields but limited compensation for taking extra credit or liquidity risk—arguing against "reaching for yield." Equity leadership is broadening beyond a narrow

From lingering "Liberation Day" tariff fears and a shift toward a more pro-growth federal policy stance to changing leadership within key sectors, Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford unpacks what moved markets for Canadian equities in 2025. He explains how this backdrop influenced recent positioning in the Canadian equity portfolio, including adjustments within energy, banks, and gold. The conversation then turns to the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and its implications for Canadian oil: how potential increases in Venezuelan heavy crude could affect Western Canadian differentials, why integrated producers may be relatively better positioned, and the role of TMX export capacity in supporting basin pricing. Stepping back, Mark explores the move toward a more transactional, spheres of influence world and how the team is incorporating this evolving U.S.–Canada dynamic into portfolio construction through diversified, incremental shifts rather than binary macro bets. Key Highlights: • In 2025, Canadi

U.S. mid-cap equities are often overlooked, but beneath the headlines of consumer weakness and market volatility, there's a more nuanced story. Portfolio manager Jeff Mo shares a bottom-up perspective on resilient—though bifurcated—consumer spending, margin surprises, and a capital expenditure boom that extends beyond AI. The discussion explores how company fundamentals, competitive advantages, and valuation opportunities are shaping portfolio decisions, with insights into sectors like defense and industrials. Jeff also addresses the impact of macro trends on stock selection, the evolving CapEx landscape, and why mid-cap valuations may offer compelling long-term potential. KEY HIGHLIGHTS: U.S. consumer spending remains resilient overall, though lower-income segments are showing more strain and deal-seeking behavior. Companies with strong competitive advantages continue to demonstrate pricing power and healthy margins, despite inflation and shifting cost pressures. The current CapEx boom is not limited to A

On this episode of The Art of Boring, Global Credit Portfolio Manager Brian Carney unpacks what he believes are some of the most pressing issues in credit markets today. He explores whether recent private market bankruptcies signal deeper systemic concerns, how to position for sovereign bond issuer risk in a sticky inflation world, and the impact of the AI-driven debt wave on credit spreads. He also discusses regulatory rollbacks in the lending markets, credit risk premium mispricings, and concrete portfolio actions for late cycle markets.  Key Highlights Recent private market bankruptcies may signal broader, systemic credit market weakness rather than isolated events, with deteriorating lending standards and rising delinquencies warranting caution. Growing sovereign debt and persistent inflation are challenging the traditional "safe haven" status of U.S. Treasuries, prompting a preference for shorter duration and higher-quality credit exposure. The surge in AI-driven capital expenditures is fueling a wave

In this episode, portfolio manager Peter Lampert discusses the evolving landscape of international equities, with a special focus on the portfolio's exposure to AI enablers—companies powering the semiconductor supply chain, from power supply units to memory makers. Lampert explains the importance of distinguishing between firms merely riding the AI investment wave and those whose competitive positions are fundamentally strengthening as a result. The conversation also explores attractive valuations outside the U.S., the growing role of Japanese companies amid governance reforms and IT modernization, and the need for careful risk management as AI adoption and global trends unfold. Lampert emphasizes a diversified, long-term approach—balancing AI-driven growth, sector-specific opportunities in Europe and Asia, and resilience against macro risks—to position the portfolio for sustainable value creation in a rapidly changing world.   Key highlights: How international equities are benefiting from AI infrastructure

Paul Moroz returns to share an update on our global equity strategy. We dig into what's changed since Paul resumed the lead portfolio manager role, how the team's collaboration has evolved, and why a more diversified and resilient portfolio is the result. Listen for Paul's take on why optionality and humility matter more than ever.  Key highlights:  Enhanced team collaboration through structural changes leading to better cross-team idea generation  Improved portfolio diversification with holdings expanding to over 70 securities: reduction of consumer staples and discretionary overweights, while adding strategic small positions that provide optionality for rapid capital allocation as markets shift  Fundamental momentum alignment improved by reducing problem positions and increasing strong earnings momentum names, resulting in better down capture characteristics during market declines  Strategic AI complex exposure built through diversified Asian infrastructure plays in memory, power, data centers, and c

In this episode, we sat down with our Director of Research, Vijay Viswanathan, and Institutional Portfolio Manager, Kevin Minas, to talk through their observations this past quarter. We talk macro, micro, and everything in between, touching on changing market dynamics, central bank policy, how the portfolios are doing in this environment, and, finally, how we're positioning ourselves as we move forward. Key highlights: Three major macro themes dominated the quarter—trade policy tensions (though somewhat cooling), continued fiscal stimulus despite near-capacity economies, and AI-driven infrastructure growth Central banks are balancing growth concerns and inflation risks, with both the Fed and Bank of Canada beginning easing cycles in September Equity markets showed a strong “risk-on” tone, hitting record highs, with AI and commodities (especially gold and copper) driving much of the growth and market attention. Fixed income returns were strong, led by central bank easing and tighter credit spreads; portfolio

In this episode, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin breaks down the macro forces driving bond markets in 2025. From trade uncertainty to central bank policy shifts, Crista explains how these themes are shaping Canadian fixed income performance and where she sees opportunities ahead.   Key highlights: Trade policy uncertainty, fiscal stimulus, and tighter financial conditions have been key macroeconomic themes shaping global and Canadian bond markets, with U.S. trade actions and paused tariffs reducing some volatility but still weighing on Canadian growth and exports. Central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, have shifted from a wait-and-see approach to resuming rate cuts as growth slows and inflation pressures moderate, though questions about central bank independence and timing of policy moves remain. Canadian bond market performance has been driven by both falling interest rates—especially at the short end of the curve—and tightening credit spreads, with shorter

Equity analyst Ian Turnbull shares insights from his latest trip to Japan, highlighting the unique aspects of Japanese society and corporate culture. From surplus and stakeholder capitalism to why you might get more than you pay for at a 7-Eleven convenience store, Ian reflects on the value of on-the-ground research, the trade-offs involved in capital allocation decisions, and pockets of real opportunity within Japan's evolving business landscape. Key Takeaways On-the-ground research in Japan reveals unique cultural and corporate dynamics that are difficult to capture from afar; direct engagement with people and companies provides deeper context for investment decisions. Japanese corporate culture emphasizes stakeholder capitalism, with surplus value often distributed to customers, employees, suppliers, and society—sometimes at the expense of shareholder returns; this results in high-quality service, strong employee loyalty, and long-term relationships. Balance sheets in Japan tend to be conservative, offer

In this episode, U.S. Equity Portfolio Manager Grayson Witcher explores the evolving intersection of government policy, innovation, and capital expenditure (CapEx) in U.S. markets. The discussion unpacks how public spending and strategic government stakes—especially in sectors like semiconductors and defense—are reshaping the investment landscape. Grayson reflects on the unique blend of complacency and optimism in today’s markets, the uncertain returns on massive AI-driven CapEx, and the importance of management quality and adaptability in navigating this new era. Key highlights: U.S. markets are experiencing a rare surge in capital spending, driven by AI, reshoring, defense, and infrastructure—marking a departure from decades of just-in-time, low-investment environments. The U.S. government’s direct stakes in companies like Intel signal a move toward more strategic, state-influenced capitalism, reminiscent of crisis or wartime interventions but now focused on critical industries. Despite significant in

Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the global credit opportunities strategy, explores the current credit market environment characterized by tight spreads and low defaults despite global uncertainties. He discusses the concept of "convergence and complacency"—where large pools of capital chase lower-quality borrowers while markets overlook serious warning signs including political pressure on central banks and hidden leverage. The conversation covers key crisis indicators, the weakening of credit covenants over the past decade, and the risks associated with private credit. He outlines the portfolio’s defensive positioning with high-quality, short-duration securities and highlights Saturn Oil and Gas as an example of selective opportunities that still favor lenders. He concludes with insights on how AI is enhancing the investment process while emphasizing that technology cannot replace the importance of human relationships in credit analysis.   Key Takeaways:   • How the Global Credit team approaches toda

In this episode equity analyst Dominic Drzazga discusses the current state of Canadian small caps, highlighting how geopolitical volatility creates both challenges and opportunities. The conversation covers recent portfolio additions including Sprott's precious metals trust and Kraken's underwater robotics technology, while reflecting on the bittersweet exit of long-time holding Andlauer. Dom also shares insights into how the research team is utilizing AI tools within their process.    Key Takeaways:  How the Canadian Small Cap team navigates market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, emphasizing capital preservation while remaining opportunistic.  The team’s disciplined inventory assessment process, highlighting how they maintain a robust pipeline of potential investments and actively monitor over 50 companies.  The rationale behind recent portfolio moves, including the addition of Sprott for stable precious metals exposure and Kraken Robotics for its leadership in underwater robotics and defense s