Sharkey, Howes & Javer
- Autor: Vários
- Narrador: Vários
- Editora: Podcast
- Duração: 12:34:25
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Sinopse
Inside the Economy with SHJ
Episódios
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Inside the Economy: Existing Home Sales, Fed Funds Rate, and the TCJA
02/10/2024 Duração: 09minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we delve into existing home sales, the current and projected federal funds rate, and the implications of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Existing home sales are trending downward - will the recent interest rate changes improve affordability for home buyers? How might these rate decreases impact the refinance market? As we look ahead, the target for the federal funds rate is projected to be 3.5% by next summer. Is this the soft landing we’ve all been hoping for? Additionally, deficit spending currently stands at -6.5% of GDP. Is this sustainable long-term? If the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act were to sunset, what would the implications be for deficit spending? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: Core PCE Inflation at 2.7% (YOY) Crude Oil at $68.22 a barrel Federal Funds Rate at 5%
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Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending, Federal Reserve, and Household Income
18/09/2024 Duração: 11minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate consumer spending, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, and household income and mortgages. Consumer spending has slowed compared to the post-COVID highs, and we’ve observed a recent deceleration in student loan repayments. Is this a sign of consumer concern? Regarding income, U.S. households have seen an increase as of 2023 numbers. How does this compare to other countries worldwide? Have unions been a contributor to the increase in income? On the other hand, mortgages are a full point lower than they were a year ago. Is this decline due to economic factors or just anticipation? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: S. Head CPI is 2.5 (YOY) 30-year Mortgage at 6.20% 10-year bond yield at 3.68%
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Inside the Economy: Hiring, Housing, and Markets
05/09/2024 Duração: 10minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the current state of employment, housing affordability, and U.S. Markets. Hiring has slowed since the post-covid highs. Are employed individuals at risk of losing their job? Is there evidence to support potential layoffs? On the housing front, affordability remains low due to factors such as pricing, cost of insurance, and interest rates. For consumers looking to buy, which markets have the best home value index in terms of the percent change from the 2022 peak? Regarding U.S. markets, recent adjustments have been made based on weakening economic data and the prospect of interest rates coming down. Since the markets are forward-looking, what momentum can we expect for the stock market in the second half of 2024? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: Crude Oil at $73.55 a barrel 30-year Mortgage at 6.35% 10-year bond yield at 3.86%
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Inside the Economy: Consumer Debt & Economic Slow Down
21/08/2024 Duração: 10minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer debt and the pending economic slowdown. Credit Card and HELOC balances have ticked up over recent months, but despite this, there has been limited delinquency in student loans, mortgages, and HELOCs. Auto loans and credit cards on the other hand have shown a slight uptick in delinquencies. What does that mean for the consumer as we move into the second half of the year? There is still lots of talk of “recession” on the horizon, as we see unemployment above 4%, but looking at the other data around the economy, does a slowdown seem more likely than recession? Revenue growth within the S&P 500, after a period of earnings recession, is beginning to normalize, reflecting a more balanced economic landscape. Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: Headline inflation drops below 3% Oil remains under $80 Unemployment at 4.3%
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Inside the Economy: Unemployment, housing, and the Federal Budget
07/08/2024 Duração: 12minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore unemployment, housing, and the federal budget. Regarding employment, the JOLTS three-month moving averages are trending downward. Additionally, permanent job losers and persons completing temporary jobs increased by 1.4% in July. If this figure reaches 2%, what might it indicate for the economy? In other news, Freddie Mac’s report on home sale prices shows a decrease year-over-year. Which markets are experiencing greater reductions in home sale prices? Will the overall housing market reach 2009 lows? The Federal Reserve has not materially shrunk the stock of money despite interest-rate hikes. Given the current money supply overhang, can the government stimulate a recovery? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: ISM Survey at 46.8 Unemployment at 4.3% 10-year bond yield at 3.99%
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Inside the Economy: Housing, Federal Reserve, and Consumer Price Index
24/07/2024 Duração: 10minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss housing, the Federal Reserve interest and Federal funds rate, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Federal funds rate is currently higher than all main U.S. inflation measures. Is the cost of money greater than inflation by design? In other news, per the CPI Primary Shelter measure, rents continue to come down. However, mortgage interest as a percent of disposable income increased slightly. How does that compare to non-mortgage interest such as credit cards and auto loans? If there is a recession, would housing be the driver? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: 10 yr. bond at 4.2% Industrial Production Output Index at 104.0 in June S. Core CPI at 3.3 (YOY)
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Inside the Economy: Employment, Housing, and Retail Traders
10/07/2024 Duração: 15minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the broader economic indicators, such as U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), employment, and housing and vacancy rates. Overall U.S. GDP growth has slowed as a comparison of 2023 to 2024 quarter one readings. When might we see negative GDP growth? Will there be a recession? Government employment has recently stabilized and is back to its pre-covid trend. How does this compare to non-government jobs and unemployment? Lastly, home buying conditions are down. What does this mean for new home sales? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: S. GDP growth rate at 1.3% in Q1 Unemployment at 4.1% 30 yr. Mortgage at 6.95%
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Inside the Economy: Jobs, Markets, and Foreign Demand
26/06/2024 Duração: 08minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss payroll and job openings, market valuations, and foreign demand in U.S. markets. The rate of U.S. job openings has dropped from its post-Covid peak. Is this a negative event or normalization in the job market? In other news, there is a large disparity between the S&P 500 market capitalization as a comparison to the European market. Does this mean the U.S market is overbought? What does this tell us regarding the U.S. dollar as a currency? Additionally, foreign demand has increased in the U.S. market. What securities are foreign investors pouring money into? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: 10-year bond yield at 4.25% S. Head CPI at 3.2 (YOY) Unemployment at 4.0%
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Inside the Economy: Wages, Housing, U.S. Financial Conditions
12/06/2024 Duração: 10minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore wages, housing prices and mortgages, and the U.S. financial conditions. The U.S. average hourly earnings report for May came in with a reading of 4%. Why are year-over-year wages still high? What would lowering rates do for wages? As for housing, renters are not experiencing an increased burden regarding their income spent on housing. How does that compare to the homeowner’s burden? In other news, U.S. financial conditions are easing with less liquidity issues. What was the U.S. financial conditions index at when the Federal Reserve started interest rate hikes? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: ISM Services at 53.8 Unemployment at 4.0% Aggregate delinquency rates at 3.2%
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Inside the Economy: Consumer Confidence, Mortgage Rates, and U.S. Markets
30/05/2024 Duração: 07minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer confidence, mortgage rates, and U.S. Markets. The May consumer confidence index report shows a higher than anticipated reading. Who is typically surveyed for the consumer confidence index report? As for interest rates, the Federal Reserve Board forecasts rates to decrease to 4% in the next two years. What is the forecast for mortgage rates? Lastly, Foreign investments in U.S. Markets eclipse $25 Trillion. Do countries like Singapore, Australia, or the U.K. have additional monies for future investment? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: Consumer Confidence Index at 102 30-Year Mortgage rate at 6.94% Foreign Investments in U.S. Markets surpass $25T
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Inside the Economy: Employment, Currency, and Natural Gas
15/05/2024 Duração: 10minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate employment, currency, and the importance of Natural Gas as a U.S. export. The recent job openings report shows a continued trend downward. What does this tell us about the trajectory of the U.S. economy? In other news, the U.S. dollar index continues to strengthen. How do global payments denominated in the U.S. dollar compare to other currencies such as the Euro? Lastly, the U.S. is a major exporter of Natural Gas. How much supply is left to keep the trend going? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: Total job openings at 8.5M S. Dollar Index at 106.2 ISM Manufacturing index falls below 50
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Inside the Economy: Debt, Housing, and Federal Government
01/05/2024 Duração: 09minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss personal interest expense and changes in household debt. What category has the highest percent change from 2023? New home sales have slowed due to higher interest rates, but what does this mean for delinquency rates? Federal net interest outlays are climbing higher in amount as compared to historical data. However, how does the near 3% share of GDP compare to the past and is it necessarily bad for the overall economy? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: S. GDP growth slowed to a 1.6% rate in Q1 Personal interest expense is approximately $500B 30-year mortgage at 7.17%
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Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending, Bonds, and Imports
17/04/2024 Duração: 13minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we monitor the increased consumer spending in tandem with rising delinquencies on mortgages. Is the Federal Reserve going to consider any rate hike movement before year-end? Consumers are still flooding into the stock market, alongside money flowing into money market bond funds. U.S. goods imported have remained steady or on the rise for most countries. What country is on the downward trend? Key Takeaways: S. Head CPI at 3.5 (YOY) Crude Oil at $83.71 Credit Card account revolving balances exceed $600B
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Inside the Economy: Consumers and the Federal Reserve
03/04/2024 Duração: 13minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the good news for consumers and bad news for the Federal Reserve. Spending on new manufacturing construction projects has increased. Does this emulate a contracting or expanding economy? How will the Federal Reserve react to the ISM Survey and Manufacturing data? Home prices are at a stabilization point and still have a negative year-over-year percent change. Will the consumer start flooding back in the market? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: ISM Survey at 50.3 Durable Goods increased to 1.4 Core PCE inflation rate slowed to 2.8% (YOY)
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Inside the Economy: Labor, U.S. Debt, and Foreclosures
20/03/2024 Duração: 11minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore where the economic slowdown is coming and where it is not. Household credit card debt has increased over the past few years. The outstanding interest payments for non-mortgage debt even caught up with mortgage interest payments. Does this emulate a struggling consumer? Have consumers gone delinquent? Mortgage debt is steady at 50% of GDP. What is the foreclosure inventory as a comparison? Key Takeaways: Core CPI at 3.8 Job openings fell to 8.9 million in January S. Foreign workforce increased 5% (YOY)
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Inside the Economy: Households, Commercial Real Estate, and the Dollar
06/03/2024 Duração: 12minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we assess household net worth and assets, commercial real estate, and the Dollar. The U.S. consumer has a strong balance sheet; specifically, with checking and savings. What does that mean for overall market exposure? The trade-weighted dollar continues to drive upwards and proving to still be a strong dollar. What does a strong dollar mean on the global scale? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: 10-year bond rate is steady at 4.25% S. GDP at 3.2% in Q4 of 2023 S. Fed Trade-Weighted Broad Dollar Index at 121
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Inside the Economy: U.S. Household Debt, Labor, and Markets
21/02/2024 Duração: 13minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the various levels of Consumer debt and trends in the Market. Recent news has shown the appearance of layoffs in the market, but overall layoff numbers continue at 1%. Are we in crisis mode in the labor market? U.S. Household Debt has risen; however, most is held in Mortgage debt. Is the increased consumer debt an issue according to household liabilities and category of debt? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: S. Household Debt at $19 Trillion Bank Deposits equal $17.5 Trillion S&P 500 reached a 1.6% year over year Growth Rate
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Inside the Economy: Labor, U.S. Debt, and Trade
07/02/2024 Duração: 12minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor, debt and where the strain is starting to show. The U.S. debt levels are trending lower after recent infusions during the pandemic and reaching pre Covid levels relative to GDP. Should debt levels be a top priority? Unemployment continues to stay in the 3% range. Will unemployment claims increase with a changing marketplace? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: Core PCE Inflation under 3% ISM Manufacturing index nearing 50 4th Quarter U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annual rate
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Inside the Economy: The Market, Housing and Jobs
24/01/2024 Duração: 10minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to evaluate the flood of new data. Inflation is still trending lower, and the job market continues to be close to full employment. Will the Fed engineer a soft landing? Mortgage rates are also trending lower; however, housing inventory remains at all-time lows. When will things change? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: Oil prices back near $75 a barrel Mortgage rates hovering around 6.5% 10-year above 4%
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Inside the Economy: The Consumer and Inflation
10/01/2024 Duração: 13minThis week on “Inside the Economy”, we talk about some important economic data. GDP estimates continue to be above trend and unemployment remains low. However, the Fed seems to be content with inflation data trending lower and many are speculating on future rate cuts. How will this impact the stock and bond market in 2024? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: Oil prices drop below $70/barrel Mortgage rates trending below 7% Headline inflation trends lower