Sharkey, Howes & Javer

This week on Inside the Economy, we address stock market performance, corporate America, current trade and tariff developments, and government debt. The S&P 500 posted its best May performance in 35 years, challenging the old saying, “Sell in May and go away.” Which companies led the index during this rally? How have capital expenditures evolved among large technology firms in recent years? We also explore how Asian economies have significantly increased their net purchases of U.S. bonds and stocks since 1997—a trend largely driven by their export relationships with the U.S. and subsequent investments in U.S. Treasuries. Has this pattern changed since the onset of trade tensions? Finally, as tariffs increase the cost of imported goods and services, could businesses begin passing those costs on to consumers? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: Unemployment at 4.2% 30-year bond yield at 4.95% S. Debt-to-GFP ratio is 123% as of April 2025

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss tariffs, trade relations with the European Union, interest rates in the U.S. and abroad, and global stock market performance. U.S. Customs duties reached an all-time high, generating $25.5 billion in revenue in May. What sectors are the primary contributors to this surge? In recent developments, the U.S. and the E.U. have begun discussions on future trade agreements. As our largest trading partner—accounting for roughly 5% of U.S. GDP—what is currently the largest import from the E.U.? Turning to the bond market, the 30-year Treasury yield has hit both a yearly and decade high. While Moody’s recent downgrade played a role, what other factors might have contributed to the spike in yields? Finally, we explore market expectations for interest rate changes. How much easing is currently priced in based on 12-month federal funds rate futures? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: 30-year bond yield at 5.03% Head CPI Inflation at 2.3% (YOY) Bank of Japan Policy Rate at

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the current state of wage growth, job prospects, inflation trends, Federal Reserve activity, and emerging trade agreements. Wage growth, which experienced downward pressure following the Fed’s interest rate hikes starting in 2022, appears to be stabilizing. Currently, the average monthly wage per U.S. worker is around $7,000. How does this figure compare with wages in the E.U. and other nations? On the inflation front, the cost of borrowing (interest rates) exceeds the rate of inflation (CPI), a potentially positive signal for the economy. Is there mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates this summer? Meanwhile, trade negotiations are gaining momentum. How significant is it for the U.S. to secure a balanced trade agreement with China? What elements of the recent E.U. deal stand out as particularly beneficial for the U.S.? And which other countries might be priorities in America’s trade strategy? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: Core PCE Inflat

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at the impact of new tariffs, the S&P 500, and ongoing trade issues—particularly with China. Revenue from customs duties, commonly referred to as tariffs, has reached an all-time high since record-keeping began. While this revenue may soon peak and begin to decline, it is not projected to disappear entirely. In which countries or industries could tariffs remain elevated? Turning to markets and the S&P 500, earnings and revenues are not setting records, but healthcare and other sectors have been trending upward. Why are industrials moving lower? Could the market currently be in oversold territory? Trade tensions also continue to escalate, particularly between the U.S. and China. How does China’s dependence on exports with the U.S. compare with that of other trading partners. Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: New Orders for Durable Goods up 9.1% Custom Duties reach $15B in revenue in April Manufacturing Production Output index at 101.1 in Mar

This week on Inside the Economy, we analyze the strength of consumers in the economy, trade and tariffs, and economics of Russia in Europe. The economic report is still providing minimal worry signs for the current state of the economy. Consumer spending ticked down slightly in February—but has generally remained on trend. What events may have impacted consumer spending in the first quarter? Tariff strategies have been implemented at higher levels than expected but have recently been scaled back. Vietnam was the first country to enter negotiations with the U.S.—what is being discussed with Scott Bessent? What other countries have started talks with the U.S.? Meanwhile, European nations are recognizing the importance of Russia’s vast hydrocarbon supply as energy costs continue to rise. How does U.K. household electricity spending compare to that of the U.S.? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: S. Core CPI at 2.8 (YOY) Unemployment at 4.2% Discretionary Consumer Spending increased 2.1% in February (YOY)

This week, on "Inside the Economy," we will break down the international stock markets and their outperformance compared to the US in 2025. Could this be the beginning of a long-awaited turnaround in the international markets? The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure showed a slight uptick in March while personal incomes also rose. Can US consumers continue to power the economy forward as they have over the past few years? Amid a market pullback and the potential for a correction in the S&P500, we review recent market volatility and how often we see corrections and bear markets. Overall, we continue to see strength in international stocks and a normalization in inflation. Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: European stocks are beating the US by a record Gold, International stocks, and Fixed income are the best performers of the year so far Portfolio diversification appears to be benefiting investors as the S&P500 nears correction territory

This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer attitudes and market trends, specifically considering the S&P 500 entering correction territory. Revolving consumer credit as a percentage of disposable personal income is hovering around 6%, which has historically been considered a healthy level. Mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP continues to stay on track. What is the current level of foreclosures in the housing market compared to 2008? Are trends in auto delinquencies showing signs of concern? The S&P 500 has reached correction territory but may have also entered oversold territory. Could the correction be a sign of trouble, or simply volatility? Looking at the timeframe from election day to now, treasuries are now beating stocks. How might future Federal Reserve meetings impact treasuries? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: S. Core CPI at 3.1 (YOY) 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.65% S&P 500 1-year return of 10%

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore unemployment and jobs, U.S. net worth by households, and the housing market. Economic data suggests a potential return to trend growth. As of January, job openings reached 7.6 million, while unemployment peaked at 6.8 million. With recent developments regarding federal job cuts, potential reductions to the Department of Defense workforce have been considered. If a select percentage of these workers are laid off, what effect could that have on national unemployment? In other news, U.S. net worth has reached $170 trillion, primarily driven by housing and market investments. How much wealth is held by the average U.S. household compared to the rest of the world? New home sales fell 10% in January, but the overall level of home sales remains high when compared to 2010-2016. How has the multifamily sector performed in recent months? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: Durable Goods at 3.1% 10-year bond yield at 4.29% Crude Oil at $69.47 a barrel

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the current state of the domestic consumer in relation to inflation and interest rates, the potential for a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, and Europe and Asia. The media has been buzzing about an increase in year-over-year inflation. Is this necessarily bad news, or is it an adjustment in the numbers? Which inflation data point saw the biggest increase? Additionally, the current administration has proposed the idea of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, with the goal of promoting fiscal sustainability. Could monetizing the U.S.’s majority stake in gold significantly aid in the creation of the fund? Across the globe, China has seen record investment outflows, alongside a minimal amount of inbound investment. Japan, once one of China’s top partners for direct investment, has shifted its focus. Who is Japan now prioritizing for direct investment? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: S. Core CPI at 3.3 (YOY) 30-year Mortgage at 6.87% The U.S. holds 8.1k metric tons of Gold a

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss recent market activity, Treasury Bills, Oil, and the U.S. international trade balance in light of recent tariff discussions. The U.S. equity markets had a strong year last year but have been more volatile as the new year begins. Net profit margins and forward earnings are good, but what does the price-to-earnings ratio tell us about equities? Market expectations for Fed Policy has raised its target Federal Funds rate from 3% to 4% by 2026 between last fall to the start of the year. Is there a chance the Fed will hike rates in 2025? In oil production, the U.S. remains a net exporter of oil and petroleum products. Historically, we were dependent on imports from Saudi Arabia—are we still dependent on them today? Finally, with ongoing tariff discussions, will they dramatically affect the U.S. international trade balance? Historically, the U.S. has had a service surplus and a goods deficit, but could the trade deficit shift with potential tariffs being implemented? Tune

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the global economy, the new administration’s economic direction, and trade. Looking at projections for global GDP growth in 2025, we’re not expecting significant growth in countries like Great Britain and Germany. How will their respective central banks manage inflation compared to the United States? The U.S. economy has experienced steady post-pandemic GDP growth, with consumer spending leading the way. In the year ahead, we’ll be closely monitoring both consumer consumption and government spending. As for inflation, what key components will be monitored to ensure CPI remains steady? Turning to global supply chains, the ISM Manufacturing Index has remained in contraction for most of 2024. Key drivers include ongoing supply chain disruptions and the strength of the U.S. dollar. On the flip side, where does the services sector stand—contractionary or expansionary—heading into 2025? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: Crude Oil at $76.13 a barrel Unemployment at

This week on “Inside the Economy,” we break down 2024 market performance, how finances for US households look going into 2025, and the housing market. The S&P 500 Index is in rare air with back-to-back 20%+ returns in 2023 and 2024. Should we expect another 20%+ in 2025? US consumers remain resilient with spending on goods and services finishing strong in 2024.  Can US consumers continue to spend at the same rate in 2025? US home affordability remains historically low, and homeownership continues to hover around 62%. High interest rates with long-dated bonds back to their highest level over a year have kept a lid on refinancing and mortgage activity. Where will the US housing market go in 2025? Overall, we continue to see a normalization in the US dollar and interest rates. Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: US housing annual growth remains around its long-term average of 4-7% 30-year bonds moved back to their highest yield in more than a year, just shy of 5% US Debt and the US Dollar continue to cl

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we break down the sectors of inflation, market trends, bond yields, and manufacturing production. The primary driver of inflation still present in the market is housing, while core goods show little to no inflation year-over-year. Where else has inflation cooled? New home prices remain high, and new home inventories are steady. Is household debt as a percentage of income impacting consumers when compared to historical data? As for the equity markets, they continue to be overvalued, particularly the Dow. In the manufacturing sector, production is nearly back to where it was pre pandemic. How do other countries like Germany and Japan compare in terms of manufacturing capacity? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: 10-year bond yield at 4.57% Core Inflation at 3.3% (YOY) Manufacturing Production Index at 99.0 in November

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the outlook for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the job market, housing, and global markets. The chances of a future interest rate cut by the Fed have increased – what factors have led to this change? Yields on fixed income have gone down; how might they react to another interest rate cut? We also explore U.S. manufacturing employment and consider policy shifts in the past several years like tariffs aimed at retaining jobs. Are these policies successfully bringing jobs back to the U.S.? Is the overall job market starting to tighten? Additionally, we discuss the strong momentum in U.S. markets post-election – are stocks becoming overvalued, and what could trigger a correction? Is there still an imbalance between U.S. stocks as compared to markets in other countries? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: 10-year bond yield at 4.17% Unemployment at 4.2% 30-year Mortgage at 6.69%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer, markets, expectations, and the cost of money. Total retail sales exceeded $700 Billion in October. Are these high sales due to the upcoming holiday season? Have credit card debt delinquencies increased as a result of higher consumer spending? House prices have yet to retreat, despite higher mortgage rates. How much inventory is available for new home purchases? As for the markets, they continue to reach new record highs. According to the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, is the market currently overvalued or undervalued? Has the gap between U.S. and international securities widened? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: S. Head CPI is 2.6 (YOY) Total Retail Sales in October at $718.9B Median Single-Family Sale Price in October at $412.2k

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the post-election economy, changes in the mortgage market, and the future of deficit spending. Jobless claims remain consistent year-over-year, and the personal savings rate has normalized. Regarding wages and salaries, they have been decreasing year-over-year. Are consumers concerned that inflation will outpace their wages? Meanwhile, mortgage rates have increased in October and November. What is the current volume of mortgage refinance applications? Tariffs currently account for two percent of net federal receipts, while individual income taxes and social insurance taxes make up the majority. If more tariffs are enacted, what is the projected impact on future net federal receipts. Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: ISM Services at 56.0 30-year Mortgage at 6.79% Personal Saving Rate at 4.6% in September

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we assess housing affordability, sales, mortgages, household cash on hand, and China’s demographics. Housing affordability is near a record low. How much would home prices have to decrease, or household incomes need to increase for affordability to return to the levels seen in the 2016-2019 markets? Total money-market fund assets are at a record $6.51 trillion, even though there aren’t any new flows into money markets. How are consumers using, or not using, their cash? Regarding China’s demographics, there have been significant shifts. What does the longevity of their nation look like, given the system-wide leverage disparity? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: 10-year bond yield at 4.21% Unemployment at 4.1% 30-year Mortgage at 6.54%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the levels of credit card debt, interest income, and relative insurance premiums across the United States. You may have seen news about credit card balances reaching an all-time high. However, did consumer credit card spending increase or decrease. What are the current levels of delinquencies on credit card debts? In other news, mortgage interest is not going higher, even with the rise in interest rates. How do home prices compare? What is the level of interest income paid out compared to mortgage interest? Regarding insurance, Colorado is on par with Florida concerning average annual insurance premiums. What has driven the increase in premiums in Colorado? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: 30-year Mortgage at 6.32% Unemployment at 4.1% S Net Wealth in Q2 at $152.8T

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we delve into existing home sales, the current and projected federal funds rate, and the implications of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Existing home sales are trending downward - will the recent interest rate changes improve affordability for home buyers? How might these rate decreases impact the refinance market? As we look ahead, the target for the federal funds rate is projected to be 3.5% by next summer. Is this the soft landing we’ve all been hoping for? Additionally, deficit spending currently stands at -6.5% of GDP. Is this sustainable long-term? If the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act were to sunset, what would the implications be for deficit spending? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: Core PCE Inflation at 2.7% (YOY) Crude Oil at $68.22 a barrel Federal Funds Rate at 5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate consumer spending, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, and household income and mortgages. Consumer spending has slowed compared to the post-COVID highs, and we’ve observed a recent deceleration in student loan repayments. Is this a sign of consumer concern? Regarding income, U.S. households have seen an increase as of 2023 numbers. How does this compare to other countries worldwide? Have unions been a contributor to the increase in income? On the other hand, mortgages are a full point lower than they were a year ago. Is this decline due to economic factors or just anticipation? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: S. Head CPI is 2.5 (YOY) 30-year Mortgage at 6.20% 10-year bond yield at 3.68%