Tcf World Podcast

Shownotes The forever costs of America’s war on Iran could disfigure economic life for generations to come, around the world and in the United States. In an earlier era, war spending helped pull the United States out of the Great Depression by pulling unemployed farmers into the cities and retraining them for manufacturing. Even through the Cold War, many Americans viewed war spending as a major driver of high-quality manufacturing jobs and consumer well-being. The war economy since 9/11 has been different. The wars themselves drive antidemocratic currents and undermine well-being even for people, like most Americans, who are far from the battlefields. These wars also undermine economic life in less obvious ways, like incentivizing endless private sector investment in defense rather than more productive industries. Eamon Kircher-Allen joins Order from Ashes to explain the profound distortions of the modern American war economy. Inflation and a possible recession are only the most immediate economic costs of t

Shownotes American policy has not kept up with the punishing realities unleashed by the war President Donald Trump started with Iran.  Iran and the United States announced a truce, even as they’re still fighting to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – and more tellingly, Israel accelerated its attacks on Lebanon the day after the truce supposedly took effect. A similar disconnect is at play in the negotiations between two powers with opaque decision-making processes and an apparent high tolerance for ambiguity and instability. Associated Press correspondent Kareem Chehayeb joins Order from Ashes from Lebanon, with a bracing report on the staggering harm to Lebanese society. In the second segment of the podcast, Michael Wahid Hanna from Crisis Group takes stock of the tremendous costs to the world and to the US of Trump’s unjustified war of choice, and what we’ve learned about how the US government is making decisions. Participants Kareem Chehayeb is a correspondent with the Associated Press in Leba

Shownotes Iraq’s government has maintained friendly relations simultaneously with Iran and the United States. The war launched by President Donald J. Trump at the end of February upended that equilibrium.  Now the United States is directly at war with some Iraqi militias, and the Iraqi state is caught in the middle, too weak to control the militias, too dependent to antagonize either Washington or Tehran.  Century International fellow Sajad Jiyad argues that Iraq will try to revive its precarious middle course once the current phase of the war subsides — but that Iraq’s economy and security will suffer unless it can create a state strong enough to operate independently of Iran and the United States. Participants Sajad Jiyad is the Iraq fellow at Century International. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Monday, March 23, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 107

Shownotes Is there an off ramp to the war of choice that Israel and the United States initiated at the end of February? The violence has spiraled across the region, directly threatening hundreds of millions of people in the Middle East, and straining the entire global economy. Meanwhile, Israeli officials have publicly floated plans to invade southern Lebanon once more. On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast we hear from two Century International fellows, Sam Heller in Beirut and Dahlia Scheindlin in Tel Aviv, who provide strategic analysis to contextualize the dizzying cascade of events. With US support, Israel has embraced an approach that it can only achieve security through total war, with no serious consideration of diplomacy and a political resolution with its neighbors, or with Palestinians in occupied territory. That approach won’t produce enduring security for Israel, but will destabilize the entire Middle East and set the region on course for an unresolved cycle of wars. Participants Sam He

Shownotes Just a week into America’s war of choice on Iran, the costs already are spiraling out of control. The lives lost and broken are the most important cost. But there’s a colossal price tag for waging war, and America’s opening salvo has a number: $5 billion for the first week and a reported $50 billion that the Trump Administration is planning to seek from Congress. The American defense budget this year is the world’s largest, at $1 trillion. As a point of comparison, it would have cost less than $30 billion to extend health care subsidies to Americans through 2026.  Analysts have spent decades tallying the costs of America’s forever wars: direct costs in equipment and personal and indirect costs in long term health care. Perhaps the most powerful long-term cost is in opportunities: when the United States pours its resources into warmaking, it starves resources to the spheres that create opportunity and well-being: health care, education, research and development. William D. Hartung, long-time research

Shownotes By the fourth day of its war on choice against Iran, the United States government was offering a shifting and contradictory set of reasons it attacked — to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb, or because Iran had missiles that could reach the US, or to preempt Iran from responding to Israel's preemptive attack. It was clear from the start that the United States had no critical national security interest at stake, and that the war violates American and international law. It's also a guaranteed disaster for international security and American standing. Century International fellow Sam Heller joins the Order from Ashes podcast from Beirut to discuss Hezbollah's entry into the conflict, the new dangers created by the war, and the baffling decision-making in Washington. Related reading Commentary, “Attacking Iran Is a Guaranteed Disaster,” Century International, by Thanassis Cambanis Participants Sam Heller is a fellow at Century International. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.

Shownotes In his historically long State of the Union speech, President Donald J. Trump spent just three minutes talking about Iran, saying he would never let Iran develop a nuclear weapon but preferred diplomacy to war. Meanwhile in the Middle East, Iran and the United States are negotiating, but are also both preparing for war. On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast, Naysan Rafati grounds the conversation in the realities on the ground, including Iran’s incentives and capabilities, and the substantial dangers of escalation. Participants Naysan Rafati is Iran Senior Analyst at International Crisis Group. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Friday, February 27, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 103

Shownotes Almost as soon as the international liberal order came into being after World War II, detractors began announcing its death or irrelevancy. Some disliked its hypocrisy: the United States and its allies preached democracy and human rights for all, but in practice only guaranteed them for some. Others disliked the restraints that the system placed on states that wanted to dominate or invade neighbors. But while obituaries for the liberal order are nothing new, the last year has felt truly different. Donald Trump has used his second term to embrace a free-for-all of global competition, with no limits on the use of military and financial power, to pursue narrow, short-term interests. Gone is talk of the common good, universalism, and international law.  Nicholas Danforth joins a raucous discussion on this episode of Order from Ashes, drawing on his recent essay in Foreign Policy. How much order and liberalism was there, really, to the international pact that prevailed from 1945 until, perhaps, 2025? And

Shownotes On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast, Peter Salisbury reports on his recent trip to the Gulf, new developments in the Yemen war, and the spread of drone and missile technology. The Houthis have matured with astonishing speed from a traditional militia to a group capable of sourcing parts and building long-range drones. They're also capable of teaching other armed groups how to do the same thing. One consequence: while the United States is walking away from peacemaking, Gulf powers—including Saudi, the United Arab Emirates, and the Houthis—are all increasing their military interventions in African conflicts. Related reading * Report, “From Smugglers to Supply Chains: How Yemen’s Houthi Movement Became a Global Threat,” Century International Participants Peter Salisbury is a fellow at Century International. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Monday, February 9, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 101

Shownotes President Donald Trump’s invasion of Venezuela is just the latest American war initiated with no Congressional authorization.  According to the Constitution, only Congress can decide to go to war. In practice, however, since 9/11 presidents have enjoyed complete freedom to go to war, or even wage secret and undeclared wars, without authorization from Congress, and with no accountability or oversight.   On this episode of Order from Ashes, legal expert Brian Finucane explains how Congress could reassert its Constitutional power to decide when America goes to war.  Finucane charts America’s descent into a norm of illegality in international conflict, how much that abuse of power has cost Americans at home, and how to restore Constitutional checks and balances.  Participants Brian Finucane is a senior adviser at International Crisis Group. He previously worked for a decade in the Office of the Legal Adviser at the U.S. Department of State. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Relat

Shownotes: Syria’s new president, former rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, has just made another quantum leap in establishing his power over Syria, by persuading the United States to let Sharaa take over the Kurdish statelet in northeast Syria. Sharaa has presented himself as an inclusive agent of change. On this episode of Order from Ashes, Century International fellow Frederick Deknatel discusses Syria's reconstruction agenda, which worries many Syrians and should concern international policymakers as well. Syria's reconstruction has an estimated cost of up to $400 billion, some twenty times the size of Syria’s GDP, and so far has mirrored many of the authoritarian practices of the deposed Assasd regime. Without reforms, reconstruction risks ushering in a new era of clientelism and corruption in Syria, benefiting only Sharaa’s allies and international developers, while the Syrian people continue to be locked out of the decisions that will shape their future.  *Commentary, “Syria’s Reconstruction Risks Cutting O

America Turned Authoritarian in 2025. Century’s New Democracy Meter Puts a Number on It. Shownotes Just how badly has American democracy eroded during the first year of the second Trump administration? The Century Foundation’s new United States Democracy Meter objectively analyzes that question—and the answer is discomfiting.  The index, which is the brainchild of veteran human rights researcher Nate Schenkkan and Century International director Thanassis Cambanis, ranks the health of American democracy on a 100-point scale across 23 indicators. The result: in the first year of Trump 2.0, the United States went from being a passing if imperfect democracy to behaving like an authoritarian state. In fact, American democracy is now at greater risk than at any time since Watergate, and it may even be approaching its pre-Civil Rights Movement nadir.  Century’s chief of policy programs Angela Hanks joins Schenkkan and Cambanis to assess this dangerous moment for American democracy. The core problem is an all-powerfu

Shownotes Order from Ashes returns after a long hiatus. On this episode of the podcast, Zaid Al-Ali and Thanassis Cambanis remember the real lessons of the US invasion and occupation of Iraq—and that history's stark warning for American interventionist fantasies in Venezuela. Participants * Zaid Al-Ali, Princeton University School of Public and International Affairs * Thanassis Cambanis, director, Century International Zaid Al-Ali is a visiting fellow at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs and a senior adviser at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. Zaid’s first book, ‘The Struggle Iraq’s Future’ was published by Yale University Press in 2014.  His second book, ‘Arab Constitutionalism: The Coming Revolution’ was published by Cambridge University Press in 2022. You can find him on X at @zalali, BlueSky at @zalali.bsky.social, and on his website, zaidalali.com. Episode: Order From Ashes 97 Date: Monday, January 12, 2026

During decades of turmoil, war, and regime change in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has played a critical, often overlooked role—steering Iraq away from sectarian conflict, promoting civic democracy over direct theocracy, and quietly seeking to calm regional tensions.   On this episode of Order from Ashes, Century International fellow Sajad Jiyad explains how Sistani has appealed to a majority of the world’s millions of Shia Muslims with his indirect model of clerical authority, a stark contrast to the competing model of direct clerical rule advanced by his compatriots in Iran.    Jiyad has published a new political biography,  God’s Man in Iraq: The Life and Leadership of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, which offers the first comprehensive account of Sistani’s legacy and draws on original sources and hundreds of interviews during decades of fieldwork inside Iraq. Jiyad    Observers of Iraq and of Shia power will find God’s Man in Iraq an incomparable appraisal of Sistani’s legacy—and an invaluable guid

The Middle East has faced growing instability, violence, and the risk of a wider war ever since October 7.    Most attention is understandably focused on Israel, where 1,200 people were killed in a single day, and Gaza, where the death toll is steadily climbing past 11,000, the majority children and women.    But the wider region is experiencing a level of violence that is cause for alarm: near-daily clashes between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel; steady attacks on the U.S. military in Iraq and Syria; and increasingly bold military initiatives by Yemen’s Houthi rebel forces.   How has the Gaza war changed the wider Middle East? What new dynamics are shaping conflicts and diplomacy among the regional powers and in the region’s many simmering conflicts? How will America’s bear hug of Israel affect other American interests in the Middle East?   Century International fellows Aron Lund, Sam Heller, and Thanassis Cambanis are joined by Michael Wahid Hanna from International Crisis Group to step back from the day-to

Foreign donors are propping up Lebanon’s public institutions and services with the kind of aid they ordinarily provide to failed states. Will this aid create more problems than it solves for Lebanon’s long-suffering people?   On this episode of Century International’s Order from Ashes podcast, fellow Sam Heller discusses the alarming findings of his report, “Adopt a Ministry: How Foreign Aid Threatens Lebanon’s Institutions.”   As Lebanon’s crisis worsens, foreign donors have stepped in to take over many core functions normally fulfilled by the government. Is this aid, which is vital in the short term, threatening the viability and long-term recovery of Lebanon?    Donors, aid agencies, Lebanese officials and experts can start by getting honest about the tradeoffs, Sam argues. A first step toward changing the counterproductive aid dynamic requires a full picture of foreign support for Lebanon, so donors and the Lebanese government can coordinate aid to useful ends and not just perpetuate dependency and state

On this episode of the Order From Ashes podcast, Ali Al-Mawlawi traces the long history of anti-Shia prejudice in Iraq. That prejudice, he argues, distorts contemporary debates over whether Shia factions are undermining the state when they compete for power.   This episode of Order From Ashes is the fourth and final episode in “Shia Power,” a series about the transformation of Shia politics in Iraq, and what Iraq’s experience teaches us about the role of religion in politics everywhere.    In episode 1 of “Shia Power,” Sajad Jiyad and host Thanassis Cambanis chart the powerful role of religion and the Shia clergy in the creation of a new Iraqi order after Saddam Hussein. In episode 2, Marsin Alshammary draws on her fieldwork in the seminaries of Najaf to argue that clerical authority has not diminished, despite setbacks over the last twenty years. In episode 3, Taif Alkhudary chronicles the revolutionary efforts of the Tishreen protest movement to establish an alternative to religious politics. In episode 4,

On this episode of the Order From Ashes podcast “Shia Power” series, Taif Alkhudary explains how the October 2019 protests formed a popular response to years of thwarted democratization.    The Tishreen protests movement, Alkhudary argues, represents an indigenous democratization movement that is resisting the putative democracy put in place after the U.S. invasion. Since 2003, Iraqis have endured corruption, dysfunction, and ethno-sectarian tensions, which the political elite justified as the cost of democracy. The Tishreen movement, while still politically immature, has revealed an alternate path.    This episode of Order From Ashes is the third in a four-part series about the transformation of Shia politics in Iraq, and what Iraq’s experience teaches us about the role of religion in politics everywhere.    In episode 1 of “Shia Power,” Sajad Jiyad and host Thanassis Cambanis chart the powerful role of religion and the Shia clergy in the creation of a new Iraqi order after Saddam Hussein. In episode 2, Mars

On this episode of the Order From Ashes podcast, Marsin Alshamary explains why, despite some setbacks, Shia clerics in Iraq still wield a great deal of authority.    Protest movements have rejected religion in politics, while corrupt politicians have sullied the reputations of religious factions. But clerics and their institutions remain powerful players in Iraqi society even as their roles change.   This episode of Order From Ashes is the second in “Shia Power,” a four-part series about the transformation of Shia politics in Iraq, and what Iraq’s experience teaches us about the role of religion in politics everywhere.    In episode 1 of “Shia Power,” Sajad Jiyad and host Thanassis Cambanis chart the powerful role of religion and the Shia clergy in the creation of a new Iraqi order after Saddam Hussein. In episode 2, Marsin Alshammary draws on her fieldwork in the seminaries of Najaf to argue that clerical authority has not diminished, despite setbacks over the last twenty years. In episode 3, Taif Alkhudary

On this episode of the Order From Ashes podcast, Sajad Jiyad plumbs the complex evolution of Shia Islamism during two decades at the center of Iraqi power.   This episode of Order From Ashes is the first in “Shia Power,” a four-part series about the transformation of Shia politics in Iraq, and what Iraq’s experience teaches us about the role of religion in politics everywhere.    A new edited volume from Century International, Shia Power Comes of Age: The Transformation of Islamist Politics in Iraq, 2003–2023, maps the radical transformation of Shia Islamist politics in Iraq over the last two decades. Contributors include Taif AlKhudary, Ali Al-Mawlawi, Marsin Alshamary, Thanassis Cambanis, Maria Fantappie, Fanar Haddad, Sajad Jiyad, Renad Mansour, and Ben Robin-D’Cruz.   Sajad and Thanassi, directors of Century International’s Shia Politics project, reflect on the lessons of Iraq’s Shia Islamists for politicians, policymakers, and researchers.   In episode 1 of “Shia Power,” Sajad Jiyad and host Thanassis Ca