Columbia Energy Exchange

The global order that shaped the past several decades is giving way to a more fragmented and uncertain world. Long-standing alliances are under strain, economic integration is giving way to competition, and geopolitical risk is once again a central driver of markets and policy. These shifts are not abstract. They are reshaping trade flows, disrupting supply chains, and contributing to volatility in energy markets and the broader economy—affecting everything from fuel prices to the cost of goods. So, how might great power competition, geopolitical fragmentation, artificial intelligence, and global instability redefine the international landscape? And what will that mean for policymakers, businesses, and the global energy system? This week's episode features a fireside chat between Jason Bordoff and Ian Bremmer from the Columbia Global Energy Summit 2026, which was hosted by the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA and recorded earlier today. Jason and Ian examine the Iran crisis, the

It's been a head-spinning day in the Iran war. Earlier today, following a temporary truce between Lebanon and Israel, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be "completely open" to commercial shipping during this ceasefire. Initial reactions from President Donald Trump were optimistic, but that gave way to some confusion about what "open" actually means in practice. The president later clarified that the existing U.S. blockade on Iranian vessels would remain in place. Despite the confusion, markets responded quickly. Brent crude dropped below $90 a barrel for the first time in weeks, though prices are still meaningfully elevated relative to pre-war levels. Even with the reprieve, much uncertainty looms as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline of next Tuesday, April 21, approaches So, what does this moment tell us about the future of energy security? How durable is the current ceasefire? And what energy system will this crisis leave behind?  Today on the show, host Jason Bordoff talks with Amos Hochstei

With an April 21 deadline looming, the Middle East remains suspended in a volatile state of war and peace. Regional mediators are scrambling to broker a second round of US-Iran talks before the current two-week ceasefire expires, hoping to narrow gaps over nuclear ambitions and the Strait of Hormuz to buy critical time for a lasting truce. In this episode of Iran Conflict Brief, Daniel Sternoff is joined by Mohammad Ali Shabani to analyze the shifts in Tehran's decision-making and the precarious future of the current diplomatic reprieve. Shabani, editor of Amwaj.media and a veteran analyst of Persian Gulf power dynamics, provides a rare look inside the competing circles of influence in Tehran. He and Daniel address a fundamental question: if the regime survives this conflict, can the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp ever pivot away from its "resistance" ideology, or is holding global energy flows hostage now an existential pillar of its survival? Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine

Energy abundance means different things in today's global context than it did even a decade ago. It is about expanding electricity access while meeting rising energy demand. It is about navigating geopolitical fragmentation, limited government support, shifting development priorities, and leveraging new technologies to deliver reliable power at scale. But the challenge is not just technological. It is institutional and financial. Many low- and middle-income countries face high capital costs, limited access to financing, and policy frameworks that struggle to keep pace with growing demand.  Solving this challenge is a priority for both the Center on Global Energy Policy and the Rockefeller Foundation, which together have launched a new high-level panel to advance universal energy abundance. This initiative positions reliable, affordable energy as a cornerstone of economic growth, industrialization, and opportunity in emerging and developing economies.  So what does it take to move from energy scarcity and towa

The conflict in Iran is a reminder of how quickly global energy markets can be disrupted. It also underscores why advances in things like battery technology — from electric transportation to grid-scale storage — are becoming central to energy resilience and security. It has been about 50 years since British chemist Stanley Whittingham laid the foundation for the first lithium-ion battery at an Exxon research lab in New Jersey. In 2019, he and two other scientists, John Goodenough and Akira Yoshino, earned a Nobel Prize for the breakthrough. By then, lithium-ion batteries had transformed consumer electronics and a growing segment of the transportation sector. And today, battery storage is playing an increasing role in supplying new capacity to the eclectic power sector. So what is the state of battery innovation today? Are there battery chemistries that could dethrone lithium-ion technology? How do mineral availability and environmental health play into the battery market? And what does the federal government'

On the eve of President Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy landscape faces a moment of unprecedented risk. With dated Brent crude already surging past $140 a barrel, the threat of tit-for-tat infrastructure strikes looms over the region. In this episode, Daniel Sternoff speaks with Ali Ansari about what's happening in Iran, how decisions are getting made, and how the regional energy landscape is being permanently reshaped. The conversation delves into the fractured state of Iranian decision-making following the death of Khamenei and the rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as both a military and a corporate hegemon. Ali explains how the IRGC's "mosaic defense" strategy has devolved operational command to local levels, creating a political system that struggles to coordinate even basic utilities like gas and water for its citizens. Ali Ansari is a professor of Iranian history and the founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St

While US and Israeli forces have significantly degraded Iran's military and nuclear capability, the global energy landscape remains in a precarious position. For weeks, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut to tanker traffic, causing physical markets to tighten and rationing to spread across Asia. With the US considering an "off-ramp" to declare victory, the world faces a critical dilemma: can the global economy survive a peace that leaves Iran in control of the world's most vital maritime chokepoint? In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff speaks with Robin Mills to provide a view from the ground in Dubai. They discuss the reality of living under frequent drone and missile alerts, the "tit-for-tat" targeting of industrial infrastructure, and what it would take to reopen the Gulf. They also explore the long-term threat to the GCC's economic diversification models and the potential multi-year recovery timeline for regional LNG production. Robin Mills is a Dubai-based non-resid

During President Trump's second term, the administration has taken unprecedented action in the US private sector. The federal government's investments in critical mineral mining and chip manufacturing are two examples. The Trump administration has also embraced tariffs, framing them as tools for economic security and a domestic industrial revival. This shift toward state intervention into private markets, done in the name of national security and economic security, has some bipartisan support. It also has major implications for energy security and the clean energy transition. So how can this new form of American state capitalism be conceptualized? Is the Trump administration's use of these tools different from prior US government programs to support critical industries, like the Biden-era investments under the CHIPS Act? And what are the best strategies for aligning industrial policy with goals around energy security, supply chain resilience, and innovation? Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Daleep

Today marks the last day of CERAWeek, the annual energy industry conference sometimes described as the Davos of energy. As oil and gas CEOs and government officials gathered in Houston, efforts to broker a ceasefire in Iran failed, and US oil and gasoline prices whipsawed. Speaking at the conference, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the current supply disruptions would be short term, framing rising energy costs as a trade-off for the administration's goal of regime change in Iran. Meanwhile, some oil and gas CEOs warned of coming shortages and said the supply shock is not yet reflected in energy prices. So, aside from a prevailing sense of instability, what are the takeaways from this year's CERAWeek? Where is the energy crisis headed from here? What have the supply shocks changed about how the industry thinks about risk and resource planning? How are events in the Gulf affecting the renewable, coal, and nuclear energy markets? And what does it all mean for global energy security? Today, in a special e

The month-long Iran conflict has rapidly expanded, drawing in actors across the Middle East and raising concerns about broader regional escalation. As a result, we're seeing impacts on energy markets around the world, including across the Indo-Pacific.  Roughly 80% of the oil and gas flowing through the Gulf is destined for Asia, and disruptions are already being felt in major importing economies like Japan and South Korea, which remain heavily dependent on Middle Eastern supplies. But the consequences go beyond energy. The crisis is also adding a new layer of complexity to the U.S.-China relationship—reshaping how Beijing thinks about risk, security, and its role in an increasingly unstable global system. So how is China interpreting these developments? What do they mean for the Indo-Pacific—both in the near term and over a longer horizon? And how might China's approach to energy security, supply chains, and statecraft position it in a more volatile world? Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Kurt Ca

Nearly a month in, the conflict in Iran appears to have hit a critical inflection point. Over the weekend, President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power infrastructure, which Iran credibly warned would trigger reciprocal attacks on GCC energy infrastructure. President Trump then postponed those strikes after what the administration described as productive talks with Iran on ending the conflict—talks that Iran denied are happening.  Meanwhile, a supply shock of historic proportions is unfolding. Some 16% of world oil supply has been disrupted, more than double the volume disrupted during the 1970s oil shock. And a fifth of world LNG supply has been shut in, affecting 50% more volume than the 2022 Russian gas crisis. The world's largest release of strategic oil inventories will buy weeks but not months for most advanced economies.  In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff speaks with Greg Sharenow about how the energy shocks are r

As the conflict in ​the Middle East enters its 20th day, events on the ground have shifted into a critical new phase marked by direct strikes on core​ energy infrastructure. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for three weeks, effectively bottling up nearly a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supply, recent escalations have turned the crisis from energy flow disruptions to potentially long-term physical damage.  Following Israeli strikes on the South Pars gas field in Iran, retaliatory attacks hit Qatar's Ras Laffan—the world's largest LNG plant—and key energy assets across the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Crude oil and natural gas prices have surged, signaling a shrinking toolkit for policymakers struggling to contain price volatility. In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff ​t​alks with Anne-Sophie Corbeau to analyze the impact of these infrastructure attacks on global LNG supplies and energy security.  They discuss the extent of the damage to Qatari and Iranian production facilities

The climate policy landscape in the US is in flux. Last month, the Environmental Protection Agency repealed its own power to regulate greenhouse gases. Two weeks later, the Supreme Court said it will hear a case which the city of Boulder, Colorado, brought against the oil companies ExxonMobil and Suncor that could determine the fate of lawsuits brought by cities and states against fossil fuel companies over damages from climate change.  Since its adoption in 2009, EPA's endangerment finding — which says that greenhouse gases harm public health and welfare — had formed the legal foundation for major federal climate regulations. In announcing its rescission, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called it the largest single deregulatory event in US history. But the repeal may be held up in courts for years, and it's just one piece of a complicated regulatory puzzle.  Petitions for review challenging the EPA's rescission of the endangerment finding are due in just over a month. So how might these major policy swings play

As the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its third week, the complexities of the global energy landscape are deepening by the hour. Shut-ins of Middle Eastern upstream oil production are now approaching 10 million barrels per day, 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas remains shuttered, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to normal maritime traffic. And while a historic 400-million-barrel release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve helped blunt oil prices from rising further over a hundred dollars per barrel, flow rate limitations mean such stockpiles may only meet one fifth of the ongoing daily disruptions. In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff sits down with Richard Nephew to give an update on the latest events in Iran. They provide an analysis of the ongoing military strikes, including the recent US targeting of Kharg Island and Iran's retaliation against the UAE's Fujairah port. Richard is a senior research scholar at the Columbia Center on Globa

In energy markets, all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 11, 2026, this vital passage is effectively closed to tanker traffic, stranding almost a fifth of world supplies of crude oil, oil products, and liquefied natural gas.  Yesterday, oil prices retreated sharply on a tweet from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, claiming that the US Navy had escorted a tanker through Hormuz. That tweet was retracted, and was followed by reports that US intelligence had detected signs Iran had begun placing mines in the Strait.  To help sort through the quickly-changing events in the Middle East and dig into how they impact energy security, we are launching a new, limited series of the Columbia Energy Exchange podcast: the Iran Conflict Brief. To kick off the series, Daniel Sternoff, a senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy, speaks with Mike Knights about what needs to happen in order for oil and gas flows to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. Mike is an expert on Gulf and Middle East security and

The conflict in the Middle East is evolving with incredible speed, creating a landscape where the complexities of understanding both immediate and long-term outcomes have never been greater. W​e'll still be here every Tuesday for our deep-dive conversations​ on the global energy landscape. But the ​speed of events in Iran and ​across the region demands a different kind of coverage. That's why we're launching a new limited series:​ the Iran Conflict Brief. It's a rapid-response ​p​odcast ​hosted by ​Daniel Sternoff and other experts from Columbia​ University SIPA's Center on Global Energy Policy​. ​In conversations with other leading voices, we're going to ​help answer the biggest questions of the day in ​30 minutes or less. From the latest on​ policy shifts to ​g​lobal energy markets and geopolitical dynamics—we're tracking it all. Look for the first episode of the Iran Conflict Brief right here in your Columbia Energy Exchange feed.

Since the US-Israeli bombing campaign began in Iran, energy markets around the world have been on edge as the conflict threatens immediate and long-term energy supplies. We've seen major disruptions throughout the Gulf region, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and massive price spikes and swings in oil and natural gas.   This is of course exposing serious vulnerabilities across global energy markets and it's putting a spotlight on what's happening in the deeply integrated markets of Russia and China.  Even before the conflict started, Russia's energy sector was struggling under the weight of infrastructure damage inflicted by Ukrainian forces. But now Russia has emerged as an unlikely safety valve for the market, benefiting from the massive supply shortages.  Meanwhile, China finds itself in a precarious balancing act; it is being forced to look at alternative markets for relief and is reportedly reviving discussions around major energy projects, such as the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline with

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a campaign against Iran targeting military infrastructure and the regime's core leadership. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials died in the attacks, which triggered a leadership crisis and inflamed tensions throughout the Middle East.   In the immediate aftermath, Iran launched extensive barrages of drones and ballistic missiles aimed at Israel, US military bases, ​and other targets in neighboring Gulf states. Energy prices rose sharply. This regional shift carries immediate and enduring consequences for global geopolitics and the stability of international energy flows. ​The outcome of the conflict—and the ultimate fate of the Iranian regime—remains deeply uncertain. Even with these open questions, the trajectory of this escalation will likely redefine the future of Middle Eastern security, global power dynamics, and the world's energy markets. How is the conflict evolving, and how might it end? What are the impacts on Gulf

President Trump has aggressively used tariffs as an economic tool, but a US Supreme Court decision on Friday struck down his sweeping tariffs, bringing new uncertainty. The court, in a 6-to-3 decision, ruled that the president had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs on nearly every US trading partner last year. President Trump moved swiftly to work around the court by imposing levies using other trade powers. On Saturday, Trump said that he would raise the new global tariff rate to 15%, using a provision in a law that allows him to impose an across-the-board tariff. This measure can only be enacted for 150 days unless Congress agrees to extend it. Trump also said he would use the act to investigate other countries' unfair trade practices, which could result in additional tariffs.  What does the Supreme Court ruling mean for the president's ability to wield tariffs for geopolitical pressure? How will this impact US trading partners and existing trade deals? And what about the impact on the energy se

Under the second Trump administration, the US Department of Energy significantly shifted its priorities to align with its "energy dominance" agenda. But one significant point of continuity with the Biden years is a continued emphasis on energy security. Energy security means different things today than it did even a decade ago. It's about competing in the global race for artificial intelligence, reshoring manufacturing supply chains, and keeping the lights on as extreme weather events become more frequent and more destructive. But the administration's efforts to bolster energy availability at a time of surging load growth has included emergency orders to keep coal-fired power plants operating. And it has pulled back funding for new energy transmission projects that it says will not quickly lower energy costs for US consumers.  So when it comes to the administration's energy dominance agenda, what are the trade-offs between security and speed? What does the administration's waning support for renewables and lo