Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that anyone believing a no-landing scenario believes in pixie dust, and that investors are mistaking record highs on the stock market for a booming economy. He sees the economy as cooling off, and warning signs building, and notes that the Federal Reserve is too focused on lagging indicators, but the trouble they have been guarding against is still coming. Meanwhile, Rosenberg says investors aren't getting paid to take on equity risk, so he is happy in being in money markets and bonds while he waits for conditions to change. Also on the show, Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — head of the Franklin Templeton Institute — digs into his research on just how much election results actually matter for the market, and Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, talks in the Market Call about investing in disruptive stocks.

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says investors need to be watching for issues like liquidity being pulled from the system and credit spreads widening and other signs that there may be trouble ahead. He says the market -- as witnessed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing 40,000 last Friday -- remains driven by momentum and investor behavior and fear of missing out, but once there are strong signs that conditions are faltering and momentum is slowing, there will be a downturn, with a slowdown starting later this year though it may not turn into a full recession until 2025. Ted Benna, recognized as "The father of the 401k," discusses America's retirement and savings crisis and details what he calls the "Wheat Grain Incentive Plan," that would revolutionize the way millions of Americans build savings, plus Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts payment-technology company Marqeta (ticker MQ) in the Danger Zone.

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that gold historically has a quick bounce after the first cut in a rate-cutting cycle, and he expects to see that gain in gold stocks — a fast uptick and then strong results lasting at least a year — whenever the Federal Reserve moves next. Winmill says that the market can keep climbing the wall of worry for a little while, but he expects struggles once current momentum fades. Leo Leydon, president of Financial Focus Advisory Services, says the technical indicators are suggesting that the Standard and Poor's 500 can hit 5,600 by the mid-fall, though he warns that there may be a setback all the way down to 4,800 once the uptrend ends. Charles Lewis Sizemore, chief investment officer at Sizemore Capital Management, says that the big discounts investors have seen in closed-end funds will continue, and he likes real estate and term funds as great values for investors to consider now. In the Market Call, Christopher Sargent, portfolio manager at Bradley, Foster &

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that a no-landing situation for the economy will create problems for the Federal Reserve when it comes to hitting inflation targets, and for consumers who are renting, buying cars and more. Thomas noted that the current two-speed economy features a large group of consumers and businesses that have been less interest-rate sensitive and who have benefitted from current conditions, while a smaller group is struggling with high rates, as shown by higher delinquency rates and trouble signs. Thomas says that if the Fed can't get inflation down, the central banker will probably continue its course "until they break something." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a fund tied to the Standard & Poor's 500 — layered with a covered-call strategy to generate income — his pick for ETF of the Week, and Loreen Gilbert, chief executive officer at WealthWise Financial Services, talks stocks during her maiden voyage in the Market Call.

Whitney Tilson, editor at Stansberry Research, says the current market conditions have made him "much more prone to let my winners run," and that investors should not take a market pushing to all-time highs as some sort of sell signal because in most times -- including today -- new highs are a positive, even if they inspire some nervousness and fear of new heights. Tilson says that investors should focus less on headlines and more on what drives markets, namely a strong economy and growing corporate profits. Ted Rossman discusses a new Bankrate.com study -- done in honor of Mental Health Awareness Month -- which found that nearly half of American adults say money at least occasionally has a negative impact on their mental health. In the Money Life Market Call, Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund discusses stocks.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says talk of stagflation and other potential economic woes is overblown, and that the economic data suggests that the economy will overcome the short-term headline distractions to perform reasonably well, even if consumers and investors feel dissatisfied living through periods of higher inflation and lower investment returns. He says the profitability and performance of companies are broadening, and that's happening right now, which should make investors bullish. Also looking at recent market highs as a good sign is Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, who thinks the market will go higher and get through some minor corrections this year, but who sees technical indicators signalling much more significant trouble coming next year and beyond. Plus, research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a study on which cars convey the most "status" to their buyers, and whether there is any real value -- rather than just hi

Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, says investors have pushed the Federal Reserve into a box, to where central bankers will now be cutting rates into an environment of rising unemployment and slowing gross domestic product growth. Historically, he notes, the stock market fears those conditions rather than rewarding it, which means the market will be sorting out that problem through higher volatility while it waits for more certainty from the economy. VanCronkhite says investors should build protection into their portfolios by owning businesses with great balance sheets, moving away from the Magnificent 7 stocks -- which he says will stop moving as a group -- to take advantage of the economic strength that should result in better long-term results once the market digests the Fed's eventual moves sometime in 2025. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisists DoorDash in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock's recent rally is the market betting that it can ge

Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, says that the market has reached a "Maalox Moment," where investors want to be invested but are nervous about the potential for a big drop, and they have to be willing to ride out their choices or they should be taking the safe alternatives of higher yields in fixed income. Stringfellow says that classic buy-and-hold investors need to be more active to feel comfortable today, noting "Just sit back and relax doesn't count." Buck Klintworth, senior portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says the market's technical indicators are not showing "the major shift that scares investors" in the cards for the rest of this year; Clayton Triick, head of portfolio management at Angel Oak Capital Advisors, says homeowners "did a really good job of locking in low mortgage rates when they were low, and of locking in low fixed rates," which made them the big winners of the rising rate environment, which has created opportunities for bond and mortgage invest

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute — says that America's fiscal and monetary policies are sending mixed signals, "driving our car hitting the gas and the brakes at the same time." Fiscally, it's the gas, as shown by economic numbers, but the Federal Reserve is hitting the brakes, which makes it hard to figure out what's next, contributing to recent market whipsaw moves. Dover says current conditions suggest that investors should get out of cash and into assets that will do well when the market declines, because he expects a mild downturn and soft market at least until there is more certainty on direction. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi looks at a trendy new actively managed core bond fund for his "ETF of the Week," noting that he thinks that active management for fixed income makes sense in today's interest rate environment, noting that managers can flex into different bond types to make the most of current conditions. In th

Mike Thompson, portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, sees heightened volatility ahead for the market, but says that recent concerns on big-picture items have seemed to ebb, giving the stock market room to run here. In the Big Interview, Thompson explains his firm's "risk-responsive investing" approach and the tactics it is drawn to in current economic and market conditions. Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA, brings his firm's forward-looking, short-term ratings system to the Market Call, and Chuck takes on the latest statements from best-selling author and perma-bear Robert Kiyosaki, who over the weekend was saying that the new crash has begun and gave suggestions -- that Chuck disagrees with -- on how to profit from the massive downturn he is expecting.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that she sees the stock market grinding higher through heightened volatility for the rest of the year as the Federal Reserve pushes rate cuts out to December or into 2025. Still, she expects "another shoe to fall" with the economy and the market, though that trouble likely is coming next year or beyond. By comparison, Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, sees the market retesting record high levels in fairly short order, but he worries that the longer-term technical indicators suggest "a rocky two, three, four years" ahead, though he remains positive that equities will be up a decade from now, so that long-term investors should remain in the market through the trouble ahead. Plus, in the Market Call, Janet Brown of FundX Investment Group — publishers of the No-Load Fund*X — talks about riding the wave of what has been winning, and discusses how the winners and losers appear ready to hold their positions for a while longer b

Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, says we are seeing a tug of war between the forces lifting the economy -- powered by excitement over artificial intelligence -- facing the stubbornness of inflation and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will postpone rate cuts as long as possible, weakening the market.  Kourkafas says he prefers the strong economy over rate cuts because it builds a strong foundation for corporate profits, which ultimately will drive markets higher, overcoming the short-term impact inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates are having on the market now. Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner -- long-time columnist at USA Today and most recently financial editor at AARP -- talks about his recent decision to retire, mostly, and what went into making it and what he learned from working with seniors facing the end of their working lives. Plus, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits Express, which has gone from bad to worse since it w

Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs at Calamos Investments, discusses the firm's new "structured protection ETFs," in which a fund owner gets exposure to a market index but gives up some upside potential in exchange for protection against losses. The funds sound like a substitute for stocks but, akin to equity index products and other financial hybrids built to avoid losses, are a more suitable substitute for bank savings accounts and other cash investments. Kaufman says the products are a reflection of the times, where many investors are tired of the volatility and nervous for the future and want some assurance that they will not lose money in the market. Also on the show, Christian Munafo, chief investment officer at Liberty Street Advisors -- which runs the Private Shares Fund -- discusses how late-stage private venture companies are a real opportunity now, coming off of two years in which private shares have struggled and the market for taking those companies public has been sluggish. He also discusses Destiny Tec

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at the Channel Capital Research Institute -- author of "Follow the Fed to Investment Success" -- says that Jerome Powell is currently trying to live "the financial version of the Hippocratic oath, which says 'First, do no harm.'" Roberts says that Powell is trying to adjust expectations gradually, which is why Wednesday's statement from the Fed boss was benign, trying to play both sides, setting expectations at one rate cut this year but with the potential to avoid that if the data doesn't demand it. In the ETF of the Week interview, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, takes a young, small fund that has struggled out of the gate -- X-trackers US Green infrastructure Select Equity -- and makes the case for making it a long-term holding and, in the Market Call, Stephen Dodson of The Bretton Fund talks about how his style of business value investing works in current market conditions.

John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says that there will not be a recession -- or anything resembling it -- this year, but he makes it clear the can't be said for 2025, once the election cycle and concerns about the impact of higher interest rates and inflation staying around longer play out. Blank says he does not expect the Federal Reserve to be pressured into making rate cuts, but notes that it could make a cut in the fall leading into the election if the data suggests one is appropriate, but he doesn't see the central bank moving off of its plan to get inflation back to the 2 percent level. When that plays out in that recession that's coming for next year, Blank says it could help to minimize the duration of the downturn. Also on the show, Adam Ruben, vice president of the Economic Security Project, discusses the group's survey of consumers using the IRS Direct File pilot program, noting  that the new filing methods drew a lot of consumer interest but

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that the years after peak inflation and peak tightening tend to be good for markets, and he expects that to continue with a market and economy that he thinks can avoid big downturns. Levitt says the economy never got the recession many people expected because the economy didn't have a lot of excesses to create bubbles or big issues, but also because trouble came in spots, rolling into one area without taking over the whole landscape. As a result, Levitt's major guideposts for recession haven't been flashing warning signs, though he acknowledges that the next six months will likely rise and fall almost entirely based on the actions of the Federal Reserve and how the market responds to them. Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, says he expects the market to recapture the record highs it was at earlier this year, with a year-end target of 5400 for the Standard & Poor's 500. Plus Ken Laudan, portfolio manager, Buffalo

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says  that while a soft landing has been priced into the stock market, sticky inflation is what could make things take a turn for the worse, noting that the longer inflation hangs around, interest rates won't be cut and that will lead to a rougher downturn. Ceci says interest rates are a driving force for stock markets, with an inverse relation where rates staying high would be bad for equities, while rate cuts would be a big plus. Also on the show: Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Wholesale Beer Association, discusses  the Beer Purchasers' Index reaching its highest levels since 2021, portending a strong summer not only for beer drinkers but for the economy; David Trainer of New Constructs puts a Fidelity sector fund into the Danger Zone, and Mac Sykes, portfolio manager for Gabelli, talks financial stocks in the Market Call.

Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, says that despite current headlines, the economy will have a higher real growth rate, with productivity improved by technological advances and continued full employment, which should help the economy avoid recession. He notes that inflation rates may not be quite as high as they seem, saying that inflation is below official government levels when looked at in more updated, modern ways to evaluate consumer prices, noting that shelter costs are dramatically overstated in traditional measures, skewing the numbers. All of this creates a positive long-term outlook, Schwartz said. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says the market's technical picture suggests a downturn in the offing, but likely nothing beyond a 5 percent decline before the market resumes pursuit of record highs. Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn says that record discount levels for municipal bond closed-end funds, coupled with a

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, says that inflation is moving in the right direction -- albeit more slowly -- and economic growth remains resilient, creating an environment where corporate earnings continue to grind higher. That has him locking into his plan and overweighting stocks. Janasiewicz says that so long as inflation doesn't reaccelerate and force the Federal Reserve to increase rates, conditions should remain benign and comfortable for investors. Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) his pick for "ETF of the Week," and in the Market Call, David Kalis, portfolio manager at The Future Fund, talks about finding the right forward-looking opportunities in markets now.

Lyle Fitterer, portfolio manager for the Baird Strategic Municipal Bond fund, says that investors should take the Federal Reserve at its word, expecting interest rates to have peaked, anticipate a cut but don't expect it to happen until the numbers warrant it. That may not happen until late in the year or into 2025. Meanwhile, he notes investors are getting strong returns -- particularly in muni bond funds where there are additional tax benefits from investing -- though not getting paid to take on extra credit risk, even though defaults and delinquencies haven't gone up dramatically with rates staying higher for longer. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest Bankrate.com survey showing that Americans aren't just planning to go far and wide this summer, they're planning to go into debt to get there;  Chuck goes "Off The News" with the Department of Labor's release of new fiduciary guidelines for investment managers, and Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds talks small-cap technol