Two Blokes Trading - Learn To Trade Online

In this episode Jonathan and Rory talk about recent events in the markets and what their opinions are going forward. The Blokes take a look over FX, commodities, indices & Stocks. The hot topic was APPLE loosing $200 billion in market cap in less than a week, the blokes offer their opinion in the future direction of APPLE stocks. A highlight from last week was the downgrade of US debt by ratings agency Fitch’s where US debt was downgraded from AAA to AA+. This sparked some initial selling in the market, but Rory reiterated in the podcast that he doesn’t think this single event will cause anymore selling.On the Tuesday morning news released also stated that another ratings agency, Moody’s had downgraded US small and mid-size lenders which added pressure to financials. This was on top of the Italian government announcing a surprise 40% windfall tax on extra profits.Looking ahead into the week, Jonathan takes us through his prediction for the US dollar and the CPI report due to be released on Thursday.

Rory and Jonathan talk about recent events in markets including the dollar, gold, USEquities and world indices. The Blokes also talk about recent events such as theUS CPI and this weeks data which includes RBA, ISM Surveys, Non Farm Payrollsand Unemployment Situation Report.In the podcast, Rory talks about the stronger than expected data on Monday and how itwas linked to a strong AUD and what he expected from AUDUSD for the short termas the RBA interest rate decision is in a matter of hours.Jonathan talks Gold and what his view is on XAUUSD moving forward into the second halfof the year. Considering the strong upwards movement, Jonathan believes pricestill has a lot of upside potential. Rory however disagrees and thinks Goldwon’t be able to breach $2000. Will Gold rally in 2023? Listen to find out both opinions.What Rory and Jonathan both agreed on was the price of Oil and where is will be heading.Both think that it could be headed towards $90 per barrel as production cutsseen by Russia and Saudi are set and

In this weeks episode, Jonathan and Rory talk about the difference between Trading vs Investing. These terms are often used interchangeably amongst the retail community however, it’s important to distinguish their differences and to be aware that trading and investing often have different processes.Both Jonathan and Rory have different opinions on whether you should trade before investing or invest before you trade. However, both the blokes agree that learning the fundamentals to finance & economics is a great starting point as well as learning about technical analysis and sentiment.Jonathan and Rory also talk through their own processes for both trading and investing and highlight their key differences whether it’s in the trade idea generation process or whether it’s about risk management or psychology.The blokes then go on to talk about how retail traders have impacted the financial markets with the influence of wall street bets & other social platforms, plus the impact influencers can have on the m

Jonathan and Rory talk about recent developments in the markets including, strong selling in dollar which was later seen with strong buying which managed to see the DXY Index climb above 101.Rory mentions this thoughts around recent dollar buying stating that if dollar was to continue the downward trend it would need to be sold against another pair but what pair would he buy now that PMI reports are coming out weaker and inflation in the UK is starting to ease, decreasing the chances for higher rates that were initially thought of.Jonathan talks about the recent developments in equities as we are now in the middle of earnings season with lots of big names reporting this week including Google, Microsoft, Boeing , Meta and Exxon to name some. Earning so far this season have surprised mainly to the upside but can the momentum continue as markets seem to be under some pressure?Equities aren’t the only market that could be under pressure, Gold markets are also feeling a pinch after a great run from 1900 to 1980, X

In this weeks episode Jonathan and Rory talk through recent moves in the markets. Rory talks about how recent moves after the lower than expected UK CPI has created a risk on tone in the UK with GBP falling from recent highs and FTSE rallying firm.Jonathan also discusses his thoughts on some FX pairs and explains how sentiment has started to change particularly as the dollar has been selling hard and other key levels in many major pairs are now approaching. Jonathan then goes on to discuss the uptick in Gold but the lack of demand from China & India seem to be capping gains, as well as discussing how Gold generally underperforms in the summer months.Rory mentions how some major banks are calling for WTI Crude to reach levels close to $100 p/b by the end of summer and how production cuts from OPEC as well as increasing demand could see this as a probable cause.The Blokes then go on to discuss how to trade Stocks, they talk through how to generate a macro led trade idea. Rory discusses how he generates his

Jonathan and Rory talk about how the retail trading industry has changed in the last decade. The introduction of Instagram, TikTok and other popular social media platforms, these have been a haven for many charlatan educators, to showcase their fake results and lifestyle in order to lure retail traders. Rory also shares some recent examples of how he has seen the “influencer” lifestyle take over social media and why seeing isn’t always believing when it comes to Instagram.Jonathan discusses how before these times, traders found it difficult to find information regarding trading, but now the industry is a full of false information & it's hard for traders to access real education. Jonathan also explains how by learning from the right mentors can take years off your trading journey & fast track your path to successful trading.A new trend over the last few years has been the development of AI in trading and algorithms. Many large hedge funds and institutions spend billions each year developing quantitativ

Jonathan and Rory take over as Mike has departed from Two Blokes Trading to become a portfolio analyst at one of the UK’s leading pension funds. We wish Mike all the best in his new role and thank you for your valuable contribution to the podcasts.Last week seen US labour markets remain tight with unemployment declining to 3.6% from 3.7%, clearing the path for the Federal Reserve to hike a further 25bps in their meeting at the end of the month.Jonathan asks Rory what his view is on the current economic cycle, including if he thinks the fed have further to go in terms of interest rate hikes and what a stronger labour market means for the Dollar and US risk assets including equities.Currently US indices are in a strong bull market backed by a divergence of data from recent PMI’s that are suggesting the economy may be contracting, Jonathan asks Rory his opinion and where he sees many assets heading such as GBP/USD , EUR/USD, WTI Crude Oil and Gold.Jonathan also asks Rory for his opinion on Apple to which Rory th

In this podcast Mike and Rory share the theory behind how the NFP data release should be traded. The podcast investigates the details of what the NFP is and how it is typically announced. Rory mentions how the NFP is a leading indicator, however also explains that there are leading indicators that can be used for the NFP such as the initial jobless claims, PMI employment reports and more.Mike mentions on the podcast what happens if there is a positive announcement, one that is higher than the expected. Mike tells us that when payrolls are above expectations and participating rates are higher, then we can expect to see growth in risk assets such as equities, Fixed income products and the USD will rally.Rory shares his opinion on how a negative announcement can be a sign of a weakening economy the would require support that we could see equities and risk assets fall, Fixed income products gather strength and USD to drop.Both Mike and Rory agree that they think on Friday, for Junes NFP number it will be higher t

In this podcast, Mike and Rory start by discussing an under the radar under performance from the Brazilian Real on Monday, following the less than expected foreign direct investment into Brazil. The pair talk about how there is still room for growth in their opinion with the emerging market space and the difficulties that can often surround investing into emerging markets.Rory talks about how last Friday’s PCE number came in lower than expected finally below 4% and what this could mean going forward in terms of monetary policy, as well as how markets will recognise this move lower. He also talks about the implications of stubborn inflation at these levels.The Blokes also cover the recent market moves that many big tech names and other corporates are up following some out of Calendar earnings and price being pushed by macro tailwinds in general. Carnival cruise lines (CCL) is one company mentioned in the podcast, looking at how their negative earnings were still a positive for investors and how this landed the

In this episode, Mike and Rory discuss why 90% of traders lose money and how you can avoid being on the wrong side. Rory opens and mentions that too many people believe the BS narrative that comes from brokers who may have a conflict of interest with trading whether that is selling you false information or pushing you to trade products you have absolutely no idea about.Rory also mentions how most retail traders unfortunately treat trading like a casino, where they expect to deposit £100 and turn it into £100,000 in the most unrealistic timeframe. Mike talks about the importance of risk adjusted returns and how 5x your money every year is a very unrealistic approach, traders must seek out information and understand the distribution of returns for a trader each week, month, or year. This is the type of content we cover more of in our App. Rory follows on from Mike talking about some of the professional returns and what to expect from markets.The podcast also unveils the truth behind scams who claim to have prop

In this weeks episode Mike and Rory talk about the S&P500 and the recent events causing this slight pullback and where they think markets are headed. Most recently, the S&P500 made highs of 4445 with a pull back to current levels of 4300.This pull back was due to a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook as well as the Fed median projected dot plot for interest rates in 2023 to end at 5.6%. This would mean another 2 hikes is possible before the year end and Fed chair, Jerome Powell reiterated the same message that inflation is still an issue for the US.Mike and Rory also mention how the S&P500 rally during 2023 has been greatly assisted by a handful of companies such as AI stocks like NVIDIA and mega cap tech names such META who have both more than doubled in price this year.Rory also mentions how low interest savings accounts have been discouraging savers and instead encouraging spending and discretionary buying. Could this spending and lack of saving be correlated with the recent large returns seen

In this episode, Mike and Rory discuss the importance of understanding the correlation between commodities and the respective FX pair. The currencies highlighted in the podcast include Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro, Great British Pound, Norwegian Krone, and US Dollar. At the beginning the blokes mention how 2 of the main traded FX pairs (EURUSD & GBPUSD) are not directly pegged to commodities rather the moves are based on macroeconomics such as changes in interest rates, politics, or other economic indications.Mike and Rory discuss the importance of understanding the country behind the currency. For example, when looking at CAD or NOK, it’s important to understand that their main export is oil therefore demand for their currency has a strong correlation with the demand for oil. Looking at the chart of USDCAD or USDNOK and overlaying the WTI Crude or Brent price you will be able to see a strong correlation between the two. Rory has also shared resources in the App to help you calculate the corre

Mike and Rory discuss the events of last week which included the US CPI number for May, FOMC’s decision to not hike interest rates higher as well as the ECB’s 25bps increase to monetary policy along with their hawkish comments in the meeting that followed. In the episode, Rory talks about the divergence between interest rates at the ECB and BOE closing in on those from the FED which is starting to support moves higher in both EUR / USD and GBP / USD. Cable has now been able to break above 1.28 for the first time in over a year following the stronger dollar in 2022 and the weakening sterling that was seen under the short-lived Truss era.Rory discusses the topic of “higher interest rates are here to stay”. He explains  that before the Great Financial Crisis interest rates were not at the crazy lows that many market participants have been used to and perhaps markets are now adjusting for rates to remain higher at 5% for a much longer period into the future.Mike talks about how gold paints a good picture in

Too many Retail traders think that technical analysis alone will save them frombeing in the majority of traders who lose money. Unfortunately this is not thecase, Mike and Rory uncover the importance of understanding how interest ratesimpact Forex, equities, indices, fixed income and all other markets.Understand interest rates, interest rate differentials and carry trades can automaticallyby default give a bias to a certain FX fair, at least in the mid to long term.Mike explains in the podcast how helps build a strong foundation for growing atrade idea into an actionable idea.Rory shares his thoughts on how interest rates impact individual equites fromunderstanding how companies use debt to leverage themselves to more exposure tounderstanding how debt to cash ratios which are too high can negatively impactthe business in a high interest rate environment. The blokes look at both scenarios of the positives and negatives of higher interestrates for fixed income and the raging market that is currently taking plac

In this weeks market update, Mike and Rory discuss the quiet events of last weekand the low number of economic data releases. The blokes then talk about themain focus of this week, the US CPI which came out at 4% Vs 4.1% expected.Mike discusses what this means given the lower than expected unemployment data thatwas also released by the UK on Tuesday morning and why he thinks this allowsfor great longs on GBP/USD.Rory shares his thoughts on what this could mean for FOMC meeting on June 14th wherethe fed are predicted to not increase interest rates given the favourable datain the United States. Rory shares his thoughts of why oil prices moved higheron Tuesday given the positive news from China regarding economic stimulus andthe affect this also has on metals such as copper.Mike and Rory also discuss what the energy market is doing and the warnings that arein place from OPEC regarding short selling speculation and how an increase inenergy prices, in particular oil could have a major effect on CPI data aroundthe

Keeping a journal while trading is very important as it will enable you to have a track record and analyse past performance. In this episode, Mike and Rory discuss how they keep a journal and also demonstrate the importance of having one especially if you are approaching an employer with reference to your trading performance. Many people will not consider your trading experience without a track record or journal. In the podcast, Mike and Rory talk about some of the most commonly used ratios and explain some of the features they would include in a trading journal. Rory mentions how having a P&L isn’t the only way to keep score. There are lots of other metrics needed in order to show where capital is correctly and incorrectly being allocated. Mike also shares his thoughts around monitoring the assets you trade. Simply having a strong or weak Profit & Loss will not help if you can’t determine where you make your money.  Mike and Rory both agree if you have lots of losing trades you need to know what

In this week’s Market podcast Mike and Rory discuss Fridays NFP number beating expectations by nearly double. The implications this has on the market short term and how they both predicted a higher number themselves, going into some detail around their process of why they came to this conclusion. The pair also talk about how the higher-than-expected unemployment rate at 3.7% is a good thing for markets but also with the issues that it can have to the wider economy.In the podcast, Rory mentions about the recent ISM PMI number lower than expected and the impact this has had. He also talks about the contradicting data being released versus what the market is doing. Rory reiterates his comments from last week about how this is a market of stocks and not a stock market. The importance of stock picking in a market like this is very important as Rory mentions how only a few large cap stocks have been holding up the entire market in comparison to the Russell 2000.The blokes then look ahead of the data being released

In this episode, Mike and Rory talk about the importance of using leading indicators when trading. Rory mentions 3 of the latest that he has been looking at Including the ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services and the ESR report. The ISM reports can give a great indication of how both the manufacturing side of the economy and the services are reacting. They give their own indication of prices and employment as Rory mentions how they can be used to predict the NFP report.Mike talks about how traders heavily rely on the Non-Farm Payrolls report released on the first Friday of each month and shares his insights into how to trade it correctly. The blokes then briefly mention how you can use leading indicators such as ISM to predict larger indicators such as GDP and remain 1 step ahead of the market.Download The Two Blokes Trading APP

On this week’s episode Mike and Rory brace for impact as UK Core Inflation unexpectedly rises to 6.8% from an expected 6.2%. They both mention how the BOE, and the UK government are not in the right state of mind to be dealing with the higher levels of inflation that has been felt around the world, but most other countries have been able to cope with it just fine. On the podcast, Rory mentions that the UK and BOE were not the only ones to signal dovish comments, RBNZ governor Adrian Orr and the committee said in a statement that they believe the job was done even though inflation levels are still at 6.7%. On the episode, Mike also gives us his takings on the comments that were made by OPEC ministers regarding the caution behind speculative traders and what he thinks this means for energy markets. To finish the podcast the blokes, talk over the economic calendar for next week discussing the US Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment report to be released on Friday 3rd June. For a more in-depth analysis of Mikes thoug

On Thursday evening, 18th May, Two Blokes Trading hosted their first summer evening drinks at the Ship, in the heart of Fitzrovia, London. A group nearly 20 attended to share their ideas and trading journeys including FX traders from Nomura,  Risk and Compliance members working for Bank of America and many more! In this podcast Mike and Rory discuss how important this is as trading can often be a very lonely game.Expanding your network is vital as learning from other people, sharing your thoughts and getting critical feedback is one of the only ways that you can develop your own trading skills. Mike talks about how important it is to develop your career that you must ask questions and often take the risk and step outside of your comfort zone to attended events such as the evening drinks ran by us.Rory tells us how he learnt from his mentor by asking lots of questions, attending drinks nights and reaching out to people and asking them to question his ideas for some critical feedback.The next drinks evenin