Skift Airline Weekly Lounge

Not only does Ryanair keep on rolling, it seems to be gaining speed. Its full-year 2017 operating profit margin will almost certainly be the world’s best after every airline has reported. Ryan-like Wizz Air is also among the world’s profit leaders despite paying a lot more for fuel than last year. Korean Air and Asiana saw their China problem solved in Q4, and both received a lift from cargo and won appreciation. Air Canada and WestJet are trying just about everything to compete against each other, and it’s working—for the moment. Spirit is delivering solid profits, although they aren’t Spirit-like. Meanwhile, fellow Scandinavian carriers Norwegian and Finnair likely have divergent views on 2017—one was glad to see it go, while the other likely wished it would never end.

With the bulk of U.S. airlines having now reported fourth quarter earnings, what has unfolded is largely a success story. 2017 wasn’t as good as 2015 or 2016, but it was generally good. Gone are the exhilarating margins of 25% and 27%. Instead we’re seeing healthy margins of 17% and 19%. Delta continues to set the pace for the Big Three. United continues to trail its peers, and that has led to some head-turning growth plans. American saw revenues surge in Dallas, Phoenix and its transatlantic market. Southwest overcame a fuel hedge reckoning to deliver strong results. Alaska appears to be coming down to Earth. JetBlue, which saw some of its Caribbean markets decimated by hurricanes, nonetheless, had a good quarter. Allegiant delivered disappointing results by its standards, but the airline still bested all U.S. carriers that have reported in Q4. And while it continues to enjoy sunny results, Hawaiian may be facing more competition in 2018.

Delta’s 2017 profits were down slightly from the glory days of 2015 and 2016. But make no mistake: This airline is performing very well. Consider that fuel prices increased 23% in the fourth quarter, and the airline was still slightly more profitable in the quarter year over year. The transatlantic market is performing well. The Asian market is performing well. The South American market is performing better. And that’s all before you get to Atlanta, which is one of the most valuable pieces on the worldwide airline chessboard. For a little more color on Delta’s positioning around the globe, this episode includes an interview with Steve Sear, Delta’s President of International and Executive Vice President of Global Sales. Click here to subscribe to podcast. –Jason Cottrell Subscribe to Podcast | Listen Whenever: iTunes | Stitcher

Just a few years ago, the often-troubled SAS was merely inches away from seeing its light burn out permanently. Since then the airline has rallied. This past October the airline completed its best fiscal year in two decades. Is the airline merely surfing the buoyant European economy? Or is it building long-term success? Finnair is also enjoying a brilliant year. Icelandair is coping with growing competition. And the Air Berlin parts sale is largely settled. In the U.S., Spirit announced that in 2019 it will again part ways with its CEO, which happened just a couple years ago. Frontier had a pretty solid 2017, but it didn’t launch an IPO. Lastly, Delta kicks off earnings season this week.

Jet Airways had a pretty mediocre third quarter. Still, there are plenty of signs of hope for the often troubled airline. In fact, Jet has posted 10 consecutive profitable quarters. India’s low-cost carrier IndiGo, meanwhile, is raking in double digit profit margins. And SpiceJet—an airline that fairly recently had buzzards circling above it—had its best third quarter ever. Both major airlines in South Korea have seen their profits tamped down by a diplomatic spat between their country and China. Fortunately both Asiana and Korean Air enjoyed robust growth in cargo revenue, which kept things from getting too ugly. Meanwhile, Kenya Airways is quietly regaining its footing. And lastly, we take a quick look ahead to 2018.

European low-cost carrier easyJet isn’t doing as well as competing LCCs Ryanair and Wizz Air. But make no mistake: easyJet is doing well. The airline’s 20% operating profit margin for the April-through-September period puts it among the most profitable carriers in the world at the moment. In the U.S., Delta and Alaska Airlines have been waging a battle for Seattle for years. And more recently, Delta and JetBlue are brawling in Boston. Is it possible all three airlines are making money at these highly contested airports? LATAM continues to rebound from the Brazilian recession. Avianca had a good summer despite labor strife and ending service to Venezuela. Finally, we close this episode looking at some growing and slowing airports.

The third quarter is usually a splendid time for airline profits in Europe, and this year has been no exception. Ryanair is more than surviving its recent bout of operational difficulties, having turned in a stellar earnings report. Europe’s Big Three all improved year-over-year with IAG posting its biggest quarterly profit margin to date. Air France/KLM and Lufthansa are enjoying a slowdown in encroachment by the Gulf carriers. Icelandair and Finnair are making the most of their warm months. And Norwegian at least made money—just not enough. Air Canada continues to edge out its rival WestJet, but both were highly profitable. The same could be said for rivals Japan Airlines and All Nippon, with JAL winning that competitive and profitable race. Click here to subscribe to podcast. –Jason Cottrell Subscribe to Podcast | Listen Whenever: iTunes | Stitcher

With most of the U.S. airlines having reported third-quarter earnings, it’s now clear that rising revenues aren’t keeping up with rising costs. While every U.S. airline fell victim to this condition, some are weathering it better than others. United and American Airlines were a couple of the “others” stumbling in Q3—at least compared to Delta. Neither hurricanes in Florida nor the horror in Las Vegas helped Allegiant, but it was a 19% increase in operating costs that really hurt profits. Spirit saw $40m wiped out by hurricanes. Southwest and JetBlue both maintained margins near last year’s level, but JetBlue’s hurricane problem could be a fourth quarter story with Puerto Rico’s slow recovery. Things are good at Alaska Airlines, despite some transcontinental trouble. Lastly, Hawaiian saw year-over-year profits dip so mildly and starting from such great heights that one might think there’s no trouble in paradise. Then why did Hawaiian’s stock plummet last week?

Despite being dinged by rising costs, Delta opened the third-quarter earnings season with its customary show of strength. Revenues rose 6% on just 2% growth, and it posted a 16% operating profit margin. While things aren’t quite as good in Europe, airlines there have much to look forward to, namely the elimination—one way or another—of Monarch, Air Berlin, Czech Airlines and possibly Alitalia. Is that enough to lift other European carriers? Lufthansa seems especially confident. It’s looking to not only lose a competitor in Air Berlin but also gain planes for its Eurowings unit—and it’s placed a bid for parts of Alitalia. Meanwhile, Bombardier might have found a solution to its Boeing problem by—wait for it—partnering with Airbus. Lastly, Southwest appears to be at last headed for Hawaii. No doubt the mai tais will be nice, but can the LCC compete there?

The food scene and the tequila are great in Mexico. The airline industry? Not so much—at least at the moment. Everybody lost money in the first quarter of 2017. In the second quarter, only one airline—VivaAerobus—did merely okay. What has happened to the usually high-flying Volaris? Even Interjet has outperformed Volaris in the first half. And despite lackluster success, these airlines are growing like gangbusters. Meanwhile, American Airlines goes to great lengths to demonstrate that less seat pitch doesn’t necessarily mean less legroom. Frontier, despite outward appearances, is enjoying perhaps its best results ever. Some of the smaller Gulf carriers are surging. And, lastly, there’s trouble in Thailand.

Jet Airways didn’t give up the ghost. Instead, it rose from the hospital bed and plodded toward recovery, and today the Indian airline is the proud owner of a profit streak of nine consecutive quarters. How did Jet avoid its near-death experience? Speaking of near death, Air Berlin is watching its planes get repossessed, its pilots strike and its time run short. Meanwhile, easyJet is interlining with Norwegian, WestJet and surely others to be named later. Why is this a particularly good move? Also, why are some U.S. airlines retreating from Cuba, while others are running toward it? Lastly, United is now forecasting a severely diminished third quarter, and the reasons are many—and most are solvable.

Cathay Pacific has seen all its oxygen sucked out of the room by the hyper growth of the Chinese carriers. Is there anything to be done? Sometimes waiting is the best option. Australia has two major airlines with two very different stories to tell. While Qantas is enjoying a golden age, Virgin Australia is a tragic tale in the making. Meanwhile, Air New Zealand, taking advantage of some of the same forces lifting Qantas, had a second quarter it could be proud of despite a 21% increase in fuel costs. Air Canada and WestJet are benefiting from a strong home economy, but the aggressive growth of both airlines might be stunting profits a bit. Lastly, Allegiant is looking for profits not just in the sky, but in real estate.

After losing $300m in 2016 as a result of some horrific exposure to terrorism and political tumult, things are looking up for Turkish Airlines. In its second quarter, the airline posted a 5% operating profit margin and with that likely will turn a profit for the full calendar year. How did Turkish do it? Other airlines facing some political duress include Korean Air and Asiana. South Korea’s two major carriers are caught in a crossfire of political tension among the U.S., China and North Korea. Nonetheless, both managed to grow second-quarter profits year over year. In Europe, Lufthansa, IAG, and Air France/KLM are all enjoying what seems to be a rising tide. But none of them is enjoying it as much as Ryanair.

United is still trailing its peers, but can it catch up? That’s the question we weigh first in this episode. In the second quarter, American Airlines bested United with a 16% operating margin versus United’s 14%. One thing that went right for AA: Latin America. One thing that went wrong for United: Asia. Meanwhile, little is going wrong for Alaska Airlines, which is enjoying life in all the right markets at the right time. JetBlue’s transcontinental routes, which used to be a vulnerability, are now making a mint for the airline. JetBlue even beat mighty Spirit by a whisker. Allegiant did fine despite an eye-popping drop in its profit margin. And, lastly Southwest was again a profit leader with its very conservative approach.

The airline is on such a roll that not even a grouchy demagogue can stop Delta. The Atlanta-based carrier posted a better second quarter than it did last year, and it leaves Delta with at least a slim shot of having its best year ever. Low fuel prices were a defining factor for the industry during the quarter, and Delta took full advantage. But it saw success on the revenue side too. Not all airlines were so lucky, including Norwegian, which posted a slightly negative operating margin during a quarter it really needs to be making money—a lot of money. Things are even more dire at South African Airways, although SAA has one thing Norwegian doesn’t have: a state sponsor. And Air France pilots agreed to allow the airline to create a low-cost unit. But is that even a good idea?

Terror attacks… a blockade… Alitalia… The first half of 2017 has been interesting—even against the airline industry’s high standard in that department. In just a 30-minute episode we attempt to unpack the first half of 2017. Despite a lot of excitement, the most significant story of the year—low oil prices—is really rather mundane, but still a very big deal. For instance, it means the U.S. earnings bonanza might be more sustainable. Europe is enjoying one of its better years in recent memory. Gulf carriers are cutting capacity, which might (or might not) be the start of a seismic change in the industry. Kenya Airways is back on its feet, while South African Airways is on it back. New entrants are riding an economic resurgence in South America. Lion Air, VietJet and Air Asia are ensuring capacity remains high in the ASEAN region. And that’s all before we get to China, which continues to be the 800-pound panda in the room.

So this is happening: A major international airline faces a blockade. We admit it—this is a new one for us, with little to no history as a guide. Nonetheless, Qatar Airways faces a travel and trade embargo from four nearby countries, which overnight wiped 18 destinations off Qatar’s route map and essentially propped up a legal wall in the airspace to the south and west of Doha. This hardship—and it surely is one, despite management’s defiant swagger—comes at a time when all three major Gulf carriers are enduring a downtrend. Qatar’s newly released 2016 results certainly lacked luster. And how will the blockade affect Emirates and Etihad? Elsewhere, Southwest, while not facing a blockade, is stepping into what appears to be a multi-party knife fight in Fort Lauderdale with the likes of JetBlue, Delta and Spirit. Lastly, with the airshow in Paris underway, we discuss a few aircraft (both real and imagined) including the B797, the B737 MAX-10 and the “A380 Plus.”

Ryanair was one of just three individual airlines in Europe to post an operating profit in the first quarter. The success came not only by way of the airline’s juggernaut of a business model, but also because Ryanair was one of the few to see a year-over-year decline in fuel costs. One European airline had an even better Q1 than Ryanair. British Airways chalked up an 8% operating margin in the historically weak first quarter. Air France/KLM, by its own standards, had a good quarter, in part because of its operational performance. Wizz Air lost a little money, but that’s nothing to worry about as the LCC expects great success this summer. Other items discussed include the Alitalia death watch and whether terrorist attacks in the U.K. will nullify recent traffic gains.

Having just weathered a once-in-a-generation economic crisis, the airlines of South America just enjoyed a smooth first quarter. All the major South American airlines profited, and some even posted margins to brag about. But in Mexico, things were miserable. All four major carriers there lost money in the quarter, and some did so in a ghastly fashion. In fact, Volaris, who’s been a leader of the pack in recent years, is the country’s biggest loser so far in 2017. Meanwhile, Aeromexico managed well under the circumstances. Two culprits for the Mexican malaise were the pummeled peso and Easter hopping over to the second quarter this year. Plus, we talk about the effect new aircraft are having on airlines and how profit sharing is moving the industry from a fixed-cost business at least a few inches closer to a variable-cost industry.

The earnings picture for U.S. carriers in the first quarter was much worse than last year’s Q1—but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t good. It was indeed good—and good is good. Their success comes while wrestling with rising labor and fuel costs, and fickle demand. Allegiant continues to lead, and with confidence surely brimming, it’s buying new planes and slowing growth. American is benefiting from improving conditions in South American and at its Dallas-Fort Worth hub. Despite a big profit decline, Southwest posted a double-digit profit margin. JetBlue had a particularly bad fuel bill. Spirit is enduring an operational mess. And Alaska did just fine despite some bad weather.