Simply Economics

Our panel updates building risks in the Brexit drama, the inflow of new workers in the US job market, and the choices the Bank of Canada faces in their coming meeting.

Trade worries are beginning to affect export-driven economies in Europe while ongoing effects of import tariffs are boosting U.S. orders, inventories and especially backlogs for steel and aluminum.

Tariffs already appear to be an issue for China's central bank while the issue has yet to be a focus for the Federal Reserve. In Europe, central banks have been cautious and may prove more hawkish than accommodative.

An end to quantitative easing doesn't mean the European Central Bank is turning hawkish. Also discussed is the Swiss National Bank and its fight to lift inflation and limit currency appreciation as well as the play between weakness and strength in the U.S. housing market.

Winding down of stimulus, despite weak Eurozone growth, is a possible outcome for this week's ECB meeting while a rate hike, given scarcity in the U.S. labor market, appears a certainty for the Federal Reserve.

U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs are posing new questions for the global outlook with their initial economic impact beginning to unfold. Risks from Italy and from a tightening U.S. labor market are also discussed.

Strength without inflation is once again the call for Friday's U.S. employment report while the forecast for Italy, and by direct extension the euro, is rising uncertainty.

The Royal Wedding was definitely big and enough to give a boost to UK GDP, while in the US it's manufacturing, not the consumer, that's the economic driver.

Consumer spending in the US got off to a decent second-quarter start as did the Chinese industrial sector, in contrast to the UK where weaker growth is raising questions over Bank of England policy.

Low growth and low inflation raise new doubts over the end of quantitative easing in Europe and rate hikes in the UK, while in the U.S. the focus is shifting to the risk of higher inflation. We also update the latest on Chinese economic data and trade talks.

Slowing growth is the theme in Europe but less so in the U.S. where inflation is making a sudden appearance. For Japan, however, steady is the theme.

GDP forecasts for first-quarter growth in the Eurozone and U.S. are subdued while in Japan, the struggle to boost inflation continues.

Data out of Europe have been disappointing with China steady and very predictable. In the U.S., tariff effects are beginning to appear.

Hints of capacity stress and price pressures are appearing in US factory data but only hints, while factory production may actually be holding back growth in Europe.

German retail sales have fallen for three straight months while indications on Europe factory sector are slowing visibly, a contrast to the U.S. where vehicle sales may be rebounding and factory indications are on the rise and pointing to capacity stress. Also discussed is the latest out of Australia where faster growth is the risk.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in addition to targeting inflation, is adding the goal of maximizing employment and is the latest central bank to add new mandates to increase flexibility.

A new chief is the focus for China's central bank while inflation is the question for both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. And it is definitely inflation, its risk or its absence, that the results of tomorrow's FOMC will turn on.

Growth lopsided to exports may be pointing to the risk of imbalances for Europe while inflation, or the lack of it in February at least, is the focus in the U.S.

With the Italian election results along with agreement on a German government the focus is now on the ECB announcement. In Japan, leadership and when the BoJ might begin to consider unwinding its ultra-loose policy have the attention of bank watchers.

Jerome Powell's debut has increased the odds for four rate hikes this year, while weekend elections and disappointing data pose new questions for Europe and Asia.