NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 30th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere has been no breakthrough yet in avoiding a US government shutdown from tomorrow. President Trump's focus has been on negotiating a peace deal for Gaza. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are concerned the shutdown means non-farm payrolls are not published on Friday, leaving everyone guessing about whether the weakness in the labour market has continued. He also looks ahead to today’s RBA meeting. Phil wonders whether the press conference after the rate announcement will support NAB’s position that a cut is not likely now till May. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFriday was a day of positivity in the US, with shares bouncing back and a higher than expected read on US personal spending. But NAB’s Sally Auld says inflation is still higher than where the Fed would like it. But we know Jerome Powell is also concerned about a weakening labour market, so that makes Friday’s non-farm payrolls particularly prescient. Sally and Phil also discuss Trump’s latest tariffs, the looming US government shutdown and a swag of data for Australia, along with tomorrow’s RBA meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Donald Trump came out heavy on tariffs against China, supposedly to crack down on fentanyl trafficking, but mostly to offset America’s big trade deficit. Last year that deficit with China was close to $300 billion, more than a third of the US’s total negative trade balance. Since then, tariffs have been reduced in two successive 90-day truces, the current one due to expire in early November. What then? Phil talks to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal. He reckons the can will be kicked further down the road. |s that because the US needs China more than China needs them? Could China continue to grow if the US market dries up, particularly given the low levels of consumption in their domestic market? And what’s the role of the PBoC in all this? Monetary policy seems limited, and fiscal policy hasn't been that effective. Part of the solut

Thursday 25th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUnexpectedly positive data out of the US, including an upward revision to GDP, has push ed equities lower, and adds to the question of when does the Fed need to cut. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the data and examine the (still very varied) views of Fed speakers. It depends on the inflation data, of course, out later today. But if growth is picking up, if the job market isn’t weakening as much as first thought, could inflation pick up faster? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 25th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAussie inflation numbers were a bit higher than expected yesterday. On the surface it didn’t seem to be too much of an upside surprise, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent tells Phil that the devil was in the detail, with worrying indicators around services inflation. Taylor says this will have a material impact on the quarterly inflation print. As a result, it is changing its forecasts for rate cuts. Whereas the expectation was for moves down in November and February, now it’ll be well into the new year before the first cut. Phil asks, can we be sure the next move will be down? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 24th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNot a lot of movement in the markets today, and what there has been mostly comes from what’s not being said. Jerome Powell didn’t give any commitment to a path of cuts from the Fed, instead focusing on the rising challenges of inflation and employment. It was enough to drive bond yields lower and stop the forward momentum in the US share market, particularly for tech stocks. For now. Meanwhile, Donald Trump didn’t hold back at the UN, giving his forthright views on immigration and the climate ‘hoax’. Today the focus is on Australian CPI. NAB’s Sally Auld, on the road in Narrabri, tells us what to look out for in that set of numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been light-on for data so far this week, so the focus has been on the words of central bankers, starting with Michelle Bullock’s testimony to the House Economics Committee, followed by Fed speakers overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says the sentiment is slightly more hawkish, which is why bond yields are edging up slowly. Equity markets aren’t concerned though, particularly tech stocks where demand is high and deals are being done to pick up the pace of AI. Today the focus will be on the PMIs for Europe and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 22nd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s one thing US equity markets seem to love – no news. If there’s no news they’ll assume everything is good. That was the case on Friday with the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all reaching new highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about what news was driving markets, including the fall in Sterling after news of a rising government deficit, a continued slump in retail sales for Canada. There was also quite a lively Bank of Japan meeting it seems. Phil asks, with the week starting light on data will US equities continue to break records. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.A couple of weeks ago we talked about how Stablecoin in the US was seen as a means to drive demand for the expanding supply of US treasuries. What we didn’t touch on  was why people would want to use Stablecoin.’ There are so many different use cases,’ says Drew Bradford, CEO of Catena Digital, currently Australia’s only stablecoin provider. Phil asks whether it will; move from the finance sector to cover more B2B payments, and beyond to B2C transactions.There are clear benefits: it’s faster and cheaper than legacy systems. Drew adds that its more flexible, with the ability to program transactions. That’s useful for traders but could also apply to broader transactions where payment is made on delivery, for example?So if it’s such a golden opportunity, what are the risks? How should it be regulated? And what’s the upside potential for Aust

Friday 19th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a busy week for central banks, with many staying on hold. The Bank of England was one of them, but they did announce a slowdown in their QT program. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the path for the BoE, the glacial rate of cuts from the Norge Bank and expectations for the Bank of Japan today. Meanwhile markets have responded well to the Fed’s more hawkish outlook, helped a little perhaps by a sharp rise in the Philly Fed manufacturing index. They also discuss yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and the softer GDP print for New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJerome Powell called today’s rate cut, and the increased dots plot for the remainder of the year, part of their risk management approach. Although some might say increasing the expectation for cuts, whilst highlighting the potential for a weaker labour market and forecasting an increase in inflation was throwing caution to the wind. Certainly, bond markets have been on a journey in the last few hours. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the decision, what was said at the press conference, and how markets have reacted. They also discuss the cut from the Bank of Canada and look ahead to today’s employment data for Australia and the Bank of England decision later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are a little more cautious today a day out from the Fed. Maybe it’s been compounded by stronger tbhan expected data out of the us, particularly retail sales. Maybe less cuts will be needed. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether we can expect some market repricing after the dots plot from the Fed tomorrow morning. And the Euro hit a 4 year high. And it’s not just the Fed in the next 24 hours; there’s also the Bank of Canada after a softer than expected CPI read overnight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are positioning themselves for the Fed and the assumption seems to be that the cut this week will be the start of a broader easing cycle. But what if it isn’t? NAB’s Sally Auld says growth and unemployment are both tracking close to the Fed’s forecasts in June, so we are unlikely to see a mass revision to the dots at tomorrow’s Fed meeting. The activity data out of China was not a good news story, though. Sally talks Phil through the numbers, and they look ahead to a busy calendar for the next 24 hours, including US retail sales, Canadian and NZ CPI and UK unemployment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar has broken free from the holding pattern that has kept it below 66 US cents all year. On today’s podcast Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why now, for a risk-sensitive currency, when there is still so much global uncertainty. That uncertainty was reflected in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey on Friday, which showed US inflation expectations were rising. This week is a big one for central banks, with decisions being made in the US, UK, Canada and Japan. Two cuts and two on hold? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Maybe it’s not just the Fed that’s having its independence challenged. This week independent economist Paul Mortimer-Lee wonders whether the Bank of England is now more focused on preventing the economy from tanking that it is concerned about inflation. He provides a pessimistic outlook for the UK economy, which he says is suffering from successive high spending governments. He says it needs an IMF bailout – it doesn’t need the cash, but it needs a dose of the hard medicine that the IMF doles out. Assuming that doesn’t happen, then the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of a less independent Fed, where rates are cut to boost growth, with less concern about the return of inflation. The upshot, he reckons, is much lower rates and inflation bouncing back. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation numbers overnight weren’t too far from market expectations, but NAB’s Sally Auld points out that the core rate for August was close to a rounding error that could have been uncomfortable (0.4% rather than 0.3%). That print, combined with continued growing labour weakness in the weekly jobless claims, was enough to push bond yields down (US 10-year yields got down to 3.99%) and drive equities to new record highs. The ECB kept rates on hold, with no further cuts on the horizon, particularly as they are forecasting economic growth of just 1% next year. Speaking of slow growth, UK GDP is out later today. For one man’s take on what’s going wrong with Britain, listen to Paul Mortimer-Lee on the weekend edition out later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS bond yields pushed lower after the latest producer price index was weaker than expected. The core figure, year on year, has gone from 3.4% in July to 2.8% in August. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a chunk of the fall has been margin squeeze to compensate for import tariffs. Obviously, we only have to wait for today for a measure of consumer CPI. China’s CPI was mixed, with a fall in the headline rate, but a 0.9% year on year lift in the core rate. Another move overnight was the Aussie dollar – in a session of limited currency moves the Aussie rose well beyond 66 US cents. Phil asks why. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAlthough we said yesterday that revisions to the BLS jobs data for the year to March are a piece of history, the size of the downward revision does flag the issue about just how accurate these numbers are. The revision basically wipes out half the jobs growth for the year to March, following a big revision down the year before. The markets didn’t respond too much to the data, but it provided an opportunity for Scott Bessent to call for faster cuts and question the effectiveness of the Fed. Markets were also constrained in their reaction to the Israeli bombing of a building in central Doha - oil rose a little and gold reached another new high. Today, the inflation numbers start to flow through, with CPI and PPI for China and PPI for US (CPI tomorrow). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAre we about to see a big downward revision in US jobs data? Today a recalibrated set of results for the year to March will be released. Last time it showed a downward revision of 818,000 jobs. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its ancient history and he doesn’t expect the markets, or the Fed to pay too much attention. He also talks to Phil about the collapse of the French government – again - and the positive market reaction to the resignation of Japan’s PM Ishiba. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is the key release to keep an eye out for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe building evidence in jobs-related data pointed to a disappointing non-farm payrolls number for the US, and on Friday we got it, with a small increase in jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. NAB’s Skye Masters says it pushed bond yields lower, but highlights that although unemployment is rising, the rate is edging up very slowly. Still, if we see inflation rising this week against a falling jobs market that’ll sound warning bells. Canada’s unemployment numbers on Friday were worse than the US, with job numbers falling. There’s plenty of politics at play, with Japan and France both looking for new Prime Ministers this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.