NAB Morning Call

Friday 5th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The US recently passed The Genius Act, which entrenches the role of Stablecoin in the US economy. Scott Bessent thinks the requirement for Stablecoin operators to back their issuance 1:1 with US currency safe assets, like government securities, will increase demand for US Treasuries and lower borrowing costs. Is it a genius plan or just wishful thinking? Phil puts that question to Simon French, managing director of Panmure Liberum, the UK’s largest independent investment bank. In a recent column in The Times Simon argued that the UK and other governments and central banks need to embrace the technology or risk even more finance concentrated on US currency and assets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt would be a big surprise if we saw strong growth in the US non-farm payrolls numbers out tonight (Australia time). As NAB’s Ken Crompton describes, the Challenger Jobs Survey showed sharp rise sin layoffs, the weekly jobless claims continue to rise, and the number of new jobs halved in the latest ADP report. He tells Phul that the report is unlikely to have any impact on the chance of a cut in the September Fed meeting, but it could influence the number of cuts that follow beyond that this year. Whilst the jobs market appears soft, the ISM Services report showed strength, and equity markets are behaving as though everything is just fine. The S&P hit another new high at the US close, for example. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 4th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US job openings (JOLTs) data showed a fall in July (7.2 million down from 7.4 million in June, a number which was also revised down). This has adding to the belief that the US jobs market is getting weaker. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the findings and how it has moved tech stocks higher and driven bond yields lower. He also responds to yesterday’s Australian GDP, which came in stronger than NAB’s forecast, but isn’t expected to change the trajectory for RBA cuts. The US Services ISM will be an important number today; in particular, have new orders bounced back after last month’s sharp fall. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Skye Masters says rising government debt is a global issue, but it’s being felt particularly in the UK, where falling confidence in the government is souring sentiment further. As a consequence, 30 year yields rose to the highest level since 1998. As Phil points out, that’s the year Google was founded, and Apple came out with the iMac. US yields are also higher, in part because of continued concern about rising debt if President Trump has to relinquish his tariffs and trade deals. But that won’t happen, will it? He’ll find a way through. Meanwhile, the first bit of key jobs news tonight in the US, with the release of the JOLTs, job openings, data.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was a quiet session overnight with the US on holiday. Instead, there was a focus on Tianjin in China, where Putin, Xi and Modi all got together to talk about the new world order. Phil points out on today’s podcast that collectively these leaders oversee a third of the world’s population. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins in to discuss the latest Aussie GDP partials (more to come today). We also saw gold hit another new high – a confluence of factors could drive it even higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis could shape up to be quite a busy week, with an expected mix of political and data-driven headlines. But it gets off to a slow start with equity and bond markets closed in the US on Monday for Labour Day. The week ramps up towards the latest non-farm payrolls on Friday, taking in Australia’s Q2 GDP along the way. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it would take a lot for payrolls to divert the Fed away from a September cut. And expect more this week on the legality or otherwise of President Trump’s tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Ten years ago Robin Khuda had a vision that data centres needed to be much bigger. Hyper-scaling, as they call it. Back then there was about 400 megawatts of capacity in Australian data centres, and three or four gigawatts across Asia-Pacific & Japan. Today, AirTrunk has two gigawatts portfolio of hyperscale data centres, with big expansion plans across the region. They are attracting big money to fund this expansion, which is responding to the needs of the major tech players and their AI trajectory. Phil talks to Carly Wishart, AirTrunk’s managing director, corporate and international, and Prashant Murthy, managing director capital and strategy. He asks how they move swiftly, secure the necessary funding, stand out from the competition and not run the risk of overbuilding. And what innovative approaches are emerging to power AI responsibly a

Friday 29th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed is expected to cut even though the latest GDP numbers show an economy growing – and maybe the PCE numbers today will show inflation is rising. So, is a cut the right thing to do? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton who says, even though September seems bolted on, markets are stepping back on the speed of cuts beyond that. Although that could be determined by how many supporters President Trump parachutes onto the Fed board. A busy day for data lies ahead, including a major dump from Japan and inflation numbers from Europe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 28th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday’s big news is the 50% tariff slapped on India. Sally Auld says it presents a challenge for India. The tariff is high enough for US importers to look elsewhere for substitute goods. It’ll be welcome news in Europe, though, because the tariff is to stop India buying Russian oil. Europe is, itself, considering secondary tariffs. It’s also fast-tracking an end to many tariffs on US imports, in the hope of bringing down Trump’s tariff on European cars. That’s all interesting stuff but markets are most interested in NVIDIA earnings, which disappointed only in that they didn’t exceed expectations. Still, that seem enough to drag shares down across the chip sector. Phil also asks Sally why Australian inflation came in so much higher than expected yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump posted an open letter to the Fed’s Lisa Cook saying she was removed from her position, effectively immediately. Legal proceedings will almost certainly follow, particularly ss she has not yet been charged with any crime, but, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses on today’s podcast, markets have taken it in their stride, apart from a mild steepening in the yield curve.Aside from that it’s been a quiet session. US consumer confidence data showed continued rising concerns over jobs, but not enough to impact markets, with equities back on the rise today. It’s another quiet session ahead, with Australian CPI the main local interest. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 26th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe initial excitement over a seemingly dovish Jerome Powell on Friday has subsided at the start of the week. Bond yields are rising, and equities are falling. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says Powel was really quite hawkish in his tone, with a weak jobs report or higher inflation (or both) likely to dampen expectations around the number of cuts this year. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is suing Apple and OpenAI, the Trump administration is threatening sanctions on Europe over their digital services taxes, and there’s a vote of no confidence in the French government. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 25th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFed chair Jerome Powell surprise markets on Friday when his speech at Jackson Hole had a decided dovish tilt to it. Bond markets reacted but, as NAB’s ray Attrill explains, it didn’t move pricing too much for a September cut. The question is whether more will follow, particularly if the US President manages to oust Lisa Cook and get one of his sympathisers in there. If that forces a faster pace of cuts Ray believes markets will become concerned about inflation becoming unanchored. For now, though, equity markets are happy, particularly the Russell2000 which soared 3.9 percent on Friday.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.UIS trade policy has been turbulent, to put it mildly, since Liberation Day in April. Tariffs have moved up and down, some geographic, others sectoral. The reasons have fluctuated, from  stopping fentanyl, to trade imbalance, to political concerns. The benefits have been argued as protecting jobs, brining industries back home to raising revenue.Dmitry Grozoubinski runs Explain Trade from Geneva, training government officials on complex trade negotiations. He has been involved in  many, having represented Australia at the WTO from 2014 to 2018. His latest book is ‘Why Politicians Lie About Trade’. He joins Phil to talk about this new trade environment, where deals take weeks not years. How should countries be negotiating in this new regime? How long will the current state of flux last? And is a high tariff trade environment the

Friday 22nd August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities closed in the red again today, with losses more broad-based than earlier in the week. In part it’s a response to Walmart’s results, which showed increased revenue but a cut in earnings, suggesting they were losing margin, perhaps because of tariff impacts. NAB’s Taylor Nugent returns to the Morning Call to give his take on overnight market moves and the latest PMI numbers for Europe and the US. He says pricing for a September cut has reduced slightly ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Remember there’s always pressure on the Fed chair to say something new and meaningful at this event. Last year it was the dovish pivot. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTech stocks lost ground again overnight, for no immediately apparent reason, unless it’s still down to comments earlier in the week from OpenAI’s Sam Altman that some people are going to get their fingers burned. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril is back with Phil to talk through that, and all the other market moves and overnight news, including the Fed’s hawkish minutes and the RBNZ’s dovish cut. And President Trump’s out to get Lisa Cook fired from the Fed board over allegations of mortgage fraud, so can get another of his people in there. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 20th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ray Attrill says the RBNZ is expected to cut rates today, even as an upswing inflation is expected in their revised forecasts. One central bank that might not cut at all for the remainder of the year is the Bank of England, with fresh CPI data out later expected to support that case. US equities took a hit, driven by tech stocks. NVIIDA lost ground, in part because their hopes of shipping a new chip to China has been stalled by Scott Bessent’s comments that any new products will need to apply for a licence. President Trump’s decree that goods can be shipped to China as long as the government gets a 15%cut, that deal obviously has conditions attached. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 19th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHaving met with Zelensky and Putin separately, President Trump is now aiming for a three-way meeting to try and reach peace in Eastern Europe. The odds are still quite low, though, because it is unlikely Ukraine and Europe will want to surrender territory as part of the process. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says market moves have been somewhat constrained, as we wait for the start of Jackson Hole. There are question marks around whether central banks are cutting too early, with worrying signs of inflation persisting. That’s particularly the case for the UK where yields have been rising noticeably, even beyond the Truss budget experiment in some cases. At home the government’s economic roundtable kicks off at Government House in Caberra, with Michelle Bullock talking first thing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday18th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS retail sales remain resilient, but the same can’t be said for China. But the worry from Friday in the US is that inflation expectations are ticking higher. Meanwhile Japan’s GDP was firmer than anticipated, supporting the case for a BoJ hike, but when? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril is back with Phil to talk through the end of the week data, the repercussion s of the Trump Putin meeting and to look at the week ahead, including the Jackson Hole Symposium. Incidentally, it was a week out from Jacksom Hole that we launched the Morning Call in 2016 so this is, more or less, our ninth birthday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The Japanese economy woke from years of stagnation to an inflationary environment that gave businesses the opportunity to raise prices and for workers to demand more money. It provided a growth opportunity that had been missing from the economy, now reflected in the growth in the value of equities and a rising number of M&As.You’d be forgiven for thinking that enthusiasm would disappear as the country faced unprecedented tariffs from their biggest export partner. Yet the toned-down tariff deal this month, which has still not been written into a formal agreement, has seen the Nikkei reach new highs and M&As are still being signed.This week Harry Ishihara, an independent macro strategist based in Tokyo, returns to the Weekend Edition to give his views on the Japanese economy now, how companies are working their way round tariffs, the practi

Friday 15th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil on this morning’s podcast. Phil suggests there are three signs that tariffs are having an impact. First, producer prices were up more sharply than expected in the US. Second, the UK trade deficit fell sharply. And European industrial production fell too. They also look ahead to Japan’s GDP, retail sales for the US and China, pricing data from New Zealand, the US government’s plan for a stake in Intel and the atmosphere ahead of the Trump Putin meeting this time tomorrow.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.