NAB Morning Call

Friday 28th March 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.New aged care legislation, which becomes law on July 1st, goes somewhere to fixing the funding crisis that has plagued the aged care industry over recent decades. Residents will need to pay more from their assets and super funds.   Russell Bricknell is CEO of Juniper Aged Care in Western Australia and says it provides a path for future investment, but there’s a large amount of catching up to do. Many facilities have fallen into states of disrepair as operators struggled to remain solvent. But the bigger issue, says Russell, is how future aged care homes win planning consent, and how a workforce is found to staff these new in-demand facilities: two issues that weren’t addressed in the Aged Care Taskforce. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US share market fell only slight today after yesterday’s announcement that cars and car parts will have a 25% import tariff imposed on them, irrespective of where they come from. Interestingly, US manufacturers seem to have been hit hardest on the share market. Generally, though, markets took the news in their stride.  There are several Fed speakers talking today. NNAB’s Taylor Nugent says they’ll remain focussed on inflation expectations, but longer-run market measures haven’t followed survey measures higher for now.  UK Gilt yields rose as investors got to grips with yesterday’s budget, and whether the numbers stack up.  Is a tax rise the likely next step? Today the US PCE read for February, Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, along with consumer spending and saving data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are clearly not excited about President Trump’s trade agenda. Equities took a hit in this session on news that an announcement on auto tariffs could happen within hours. There have also been rumours about copper could also be targeted, pushing copper prices to fresh highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a shift in sentiment emerging from the Fed, with Austin Goolsbee warning of the danger of consumer inflation expectations being mirrored in bond yields, with the potential for interest rates to rise again.  Locally, Australia’s February CPI print came in just as NAB had predicted, which could pave the way for a cut at the next RBA meeting. Labour market data today will provide more detail on the February print. And the UK economy is slowing more, creating no end of challenges for the Chancellor Rachel Reeve. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more inf

Wednesday 26th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets lost their mojo a little in this session. NAB’s Gavin friend says this was in part due to a weaker than expected consumer confidence report from the Conference Board. It showed the lowest number for forward expectations in 12 years. The enthusiasm early in the week for more caveats in the April II tariffs diminished somewhat today as president trump indicated that car tariffs would start almost immediately and that his administration was tapping existing laws to impose broader tariffs. There's more enthusiasm in Europe however where Germany's Ifo business expectations rose and there was renewed hope that Ukraine and Russia will agree to a deal to enable merchant shipping in the Black Sea to operate without being shot at. There's also discussion about yesterday's budget, today's CPI numbers and what could be a very tricky day for the UK chancellor. Hosted on Acast. See acast

Tuesday 25th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar climbed a little today as US equities rallied, led by the Magnificent Seven. It’s like the good old days of American exceptionalism, but will it last or is it a brief stint of buying the dip? That’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Sally Auld. Some of the ‘hope’ might be driven by confusion over tariffs. At a cabinet meeting today President Trump talked about auto and pharma tariffs being imposed soon, without mentioning the broader tariffs expected on April 2nd. Oil prices pushed higher as he announced tariffs on any country buying oil from Venezuela. Also, why has the Yen fallen so far today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe clock is ticking close to April 2nd when the Trump administration unleashes its comprehensive tariff program. As Liberation Day nears, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether claims of the end to American exceptionalism were premature, with the US dollar manages to climb a little and equities seeing a few positive sessions. Today’s PMIs will be telling – do European purchasing managers have a more positive outlook than their American counterparts? As expected, Mark Carney announced a Canadian election over the weekend and used his speech to deliver a few harsh words against the US President, also as expected. And UK Gilt yields rose on Friday as rising government debt added to the country’s economic woes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st March 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.APRA plans to phase out bank hybrids (AT1s) by January 2027. So, what exactly are AT1s and why is the regulator so concerned? In short, they are CoCos, contingent convertibles that transfer to equities when a bank capital’s capital falls below a tipping point. But do mum and dad investors understand the complexity of the offering and do the instruments adequately provide for their intended purpose? That’s APRA’s big concern, pointing to the Credit Suisse example where AT1 investors lost a lot of money.Chris Joye from Coolabah Capital has been critical of the APRA decision. While initially he thought AT1s were too complex an instrument and there was an elegant simplicity in choosing between stocks and bonds, his position has changed. He now worries that some of the mum and dad investors could be driven to even riskier assets.Chris is not

Friday 21st March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOne of the takeouts from yesterday's FOMC meeting was Jerome Powell's view that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be transitory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets are still expecting two or more cuts this year as a result. Today he looks at the market reaction to the Fed meeting, what happened at the Bank of England, and why Australian employer numbers yesterday were such a big miss. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed kept rates on hold as expected and, unsurprisingly, cut their growth projections, increased inflation and increased the unemployment forecast  for this year.  But the dot plot has changed very little.  NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the Fed’s statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference that followed. It’s clear that the FOMC is in a wait-and-see mode in light of Trump’s policies and the next meeting will be the one to watch for. The forecasts also suggest that they see the inflationary impacts of tariffs to be transitory - something that was reinforced during the press conference. The Bank of Japan also sat on their hands, citing trade policy concerns. Next, it’s the Bank of England’s turn to do nothing. With no press conference or forecasts it’s up to you whether you stay up late for it. Before any of those, Australia’s employme

Wednesday 19th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was more market uncertainty today driven largely by geopolitics. Trump and Putin have reached an outline agreement for a 30day ceasefire, but it really hasn’t moved markets. There was more of a concern over the end to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Oil is higher and gold has reached new highs again today. Phil talks to NAB’s Skye’s Masters above moves overnight, including the shift in share purchases from the USA to Europe. And Canada’s CPI rises again - a cause for concern for the Bank of Canada and one that could be echoed around the world? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquities had a good session overnight on both sides of the Atlantic, perhaps because there wasn’t much in the way of bad news. The headline number of US retails sales was weaker than anticipated, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it wasn’t bad when you looked a little deeper. The Empire Sate Manufacturing index showed a big dip but is also considerably volatile. Markets weren’t too excited by the press conference in China where authorities announced their special initiatives to boost domestic consumption, but it continues to be a cautious approach, although it might have helped the Aussie dollar a little, which rose more than other major currencies. The news to look out for today relates to Ukraine – Trump and Putin are talking, will they reach a ceasefire deal that Ukraine will agree to?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe know a lot about President Trump’s plan for America First. Today we get to hear China’s plans for growth. NAB’s tapas Strickland says the PBoC and the finance ministry will hold a press conference today about measures being introduced to boost consumption. That boosted Chinese stocks on Friday. In the US the government has passed their spending bill, so the Trump administration can move forward on their plans. And the NVIDIA GTC conference kicks off today, known by some as the Woodstock of AI, with their CEO Jensen Huang outlining his vision for the future. And the OECD plays out its forecasts for global growth today as well. Plus, we’ll no doubt learn something new about what President Trump has planned.  A forward-looking start to the week, you might say. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th March 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week we discovered the extent of Australia’s close relationship with the US. Not that close, it seems with the Trump administration happy to apply a 25 percent tariff on our steel and aluminium exports. Next month, maybe our GST charge will be used as an excuse for a 10%tariff on everything we export. In Europe through, it’s not just trade that is testing the US relationship. It’s defence as well. Trump wants EU nations to stand on their own and not rely on the US to provide half the hardware and ammunition.Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, says we are entering a different global order. So, what’s Australia’s place in this new world? Do we, for example, need to spend up big, just as Europe is doing, to defend ourselves from China. Sam says not, but we should rethink AUKUS and questi

Friday 14th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets behaved in a classic risk-off fashion this session, with equities falling and safe-haven currencies rising. Even the US dollar came to the party.   Why? A day of bad news basically. Phil talks through it with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. First, tariff tensions. President Trump is threatening 200 percent tariffs on alcohol from Europe in response to the EU’s retaliatory strikes.  Secondly, data. Even though the headline PPI read for the US suggested inflation is slowing, Rodrigo says it’s a different picture when you look under the hood. Finally, the ceasefire. The language coming from Putin suggests it is extremely unlikely. Today the Rengo report on Wages data is a key release, and what it will mean for the direction of the Bank of Japan.    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Trump administration applied a worldwide tariff on exports of aluminium and steel to the US effective today. The knee jerk response has varied from country to country.  Europe is enacting retaliatory measures, whereas the UK is keeping quiet and hoping for some sort of free  trade deal.  Good luck with that. NAB’s Sally Auld says Australia is sensibly avoiding an immediate response, given it constitutes a relatively small part of our total export market. But tariffs are showing signs of slowing economies. A snap survey by the Bank of Canada - who cut rates yesterday – showed households and businesses were cutting back on spending in the face of uncertainty. Repeated globally could this transmit into an economic slowdown that will see central banks ignoring short term lifts in inflation, assuming prices will fall as the economy slows. Hosted on Acast. See ac

Wednesday 12th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTwo bits of late breaking news swung markets around towards the Tuesday close in the US. First, a cease fire agreement has been reached with Ukraine in Jeddah, with the US resuming intelligence sharing in the interim. It’s got ot be agreed with Russia, but it was enough to turn US equities sharply into the green, having lost ground for most of the session. The other news was a moderation in the rhetoric between the US and Canada. Having imposed a 25% surcharge on electricity exported from Ontario President Trump said he would double the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium. Canada’s peace  offering was to remove the electricity surcharge.NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through these latest manoeuvres and the market response, as well as examining overnight data including the JOLTs numbers and the NFIB small business survey. They also look at yesterday’s Australian data, which sho

Tuesday 11th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are clearly concerned about the direction of the US economy, as bond yields rise and equities fall sharply again. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether there’s an overreaction happening. Surely, if the economy is seen to be struggling, the Trump administration will reverse course. Maybe, says Tapas although this time the US President seems less preoccupied with share prices and told Fox News over the weekend that, even if there was a recession, it’s all part of a transition period to something big.  This week there will be more fireworks between the US and Canada, with fighting words from Mark Carney, the new Canadian PM. Today, the NAB Business Survey is out, alongside JOLTS data and the NFIB small business survey. And tomorrow, tariffs on steel supposedly. Plus, why Phil should be getting an invite to a proposed Trump Xi summit. Hosted on Acast. See acas

Monday 10th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe downturn in shares, the weaker dollar and rising bond yields are all part of the detox, according to Scott Bessant, as money shifts from government spending to the private sector. So, it’s a temporary setback, he believes. But the Trump administration probably didn’t foresee the massive investment happening in Europe. What does that mean for the future direction of the US dollar and the Aussie, which is rising against it? Questions Phil puts to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of a week where tariffs will again be front and centre, maybe as soon as today. They also discuss US payrolls numbers, China’s CPI and the latest from Canada.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th February 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The theme for International Women’s Day this year is Accelerate Action - to move faster towards gender equality. It seems progress has slowed lately in Australia. Last year 37 percent of board members in ASX300 companies were women, but only 14% of those companies had a female chair, and there were none in the top 20 companies on the ASX.This week Phil talks to two senior executives about how they climbed the corporate ladder and the obstacles they faced: Anna Hughes, CEO of the Australian Office of Financial Management (the funding arm of the Australian Government) and Fiona Trigona, Executive General Manager, Group Treasurer, of NBN Co. What lessons can they provide for aspiring young women with an appetite to quickly move higher in business?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a difficult high wire act for the ECB right now. They have cut rates as inflation comes down, but they have also forecast less growth. But, Phil suggests, it’s a strange scenario to be cutting rates whilst yields are pushing markedly higher on the back of a sharp rise in government spending. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the uncertainty of USA tariffs could also hit growth, but the experience in North America shows there’s no guarantees. They’re on, then they’re off. Meanwhile a blowout in US imports as Canadian exporters in particular sought to move goods over the border before tariffs hit.   Today the focus is on non-farm payrolls. Will they show any impacts from DOGE and which direction are wages moving now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.