NAB Morning Call

Thursday 24th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities rose again this session, and te US dollar strengthened for the second session, as the Trump administration talked up the possibility of cuts to China’s tariffs. The Wall Street Journal reports the levies could be cut by more than half in some cases, although there’s declaration from Trump himself, or any indication of when  this might happen. But as NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, that’s not stopped markets seeing the positive side of it all. PMIs came in a little weaker than expected across Europe and the US, although manufacturing did somewhat better than services. It’s mainly second tier data today and tomorrow, and a ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia is looking less likely – if it’s accepted it’s a win for Russia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are behaving very differently today. US equities are rising, bond movement is subdued, and oil prices are back on the rise. NAB’s Sally Auld says sentiment is being driven by talk from the US administration about trade deals getting closer with India and Japan, and how he current impasse with China is unsustainable. So, does that mean tariffs won’t bounce back up after their 90day pause? That seems to be how markets are taking it, but Sally says the sentiment could change when we start  to get real data on how badly the US economy (and others) have been impacted.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe 'sell America' trade continued on Monday, with equities and bond prices both falling. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s uncertainty over the independence of the Fed that is playing on market concerns this time. The US President has made no secret of his desire to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, although there’s a question of how far Presidential authority can stretch. This compounds other concerns. For example, how likely are trade agreements? It’s becoming apparent that a deal with Japan hasn’t progressed far, whilst animosity between China and the US ramping up further. Both countries are now threatening their trading partners to pick sides in the trade war. Tapas says we are now starting to see hard data showing us what’s really going on.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th April 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.IATA is predicting the airline industry will break through the $1 trillion revenue mark, but with margins averaging up 3.6 percent. Phil suggests to airline industry analyst John Strickland that it’s not much of a return for such a capital-intensive industry subject to so much geopolitical risk. But, John argues, if you take the long-term perspective, and look for airlines with strong, proven management that have shown they can deliver margins and cope with crises, you can still enjoy healthy dividends. When it comes to the challenges of tariffs, the manufacturers face the biggest problem, with components sourced all over the globe. There’s also the rise of China’s aircraft manufacturing that is likely to break the Boeing-Airbus duopoly.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThings are getting uglier in the trade war between the US and China. Equity markets have been hit by new limits on the export of NVIDIA’s critical AI chip to China, and threats of secondary tariffs on US trade partners who trade significantly with China. NAB’s Gavin Friend also talks through Jerome Powell’s speech and fireside chat at the Economics Club of China. He basically said, that with all the uncertainty, there’s a chance the Fed could hold back on any further cuts this year. That all depends on whether tariffs are eased. It’ll be a question the ECB will have been pondering ahead of today’s rate decision. There’s also Australian employment data to talk about. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTariff and trade news continues to dominate and drive markets in all directions. Sentiment surveys are now showing a serious downturn, with the Bank of America claiming investors are ayt their most bearish in 30 years. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we are still waiting to see the hard data from April. The difference in FX moves for the pound and the Euro has been interesting, with a deal with the EU seeming a long way off, with JD Vance suggesting a deal with the UK could be closer, because of Trump’s love of the royal family. Meanwhile China has reportedly stopped their airlines from buying or leasing aircraft or parts from Boeing. It’s another day of information overload, which makes it a tough call for the Bank of Canada later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities kicked off Monday’s session sharply higher on Friday's news of tariff exemptions for certain electronics items. Apple was one of the big beneficiaries. But as the session progressed most of those gains diminished, perhaps as President Trump’s weekend social media post sank in, suggesting nobody was exempt, they were just being moved to a different tariff bucket. Then, news circulated that car parts may also be exempt, pushing up the share price of auto manufacturers. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to make sense of the latest moves and to pick through the data that is still helping to guide investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was very little market reaction to the increase in tariffs from China on Friday. Could equities respond, though, to the news of exemptions announced by President Trump for certain electronics goods. Could this mean, as CEOs queue up for meetings at the White House, more exemptions will follow, including country-specific trade deals. NAB’s Skye Masters says all of that could be good for equity markets, but the damage has already been done for bond markets, with the sell off indebt likely to continue, pushing the US dollar lower. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11th April 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Economists these days tend not to treat the supply of money as a major determinant of economic growth. That’s because a downturn in the supply of money can be counteracted by the speed at which money changes hands. This week Steve Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, argues against that belief. The velocity of money is relatively constant, he says, but the supply of money is the major determinant of economic output, driven primarily by loans from commercial banks. Listen to his reasoning on this week’s podcast and why he thinks the RBA is doing a good job for Australia, but the US could be heading for a recession, even before Trump’s tariff adventure. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYesterday’s rebound in US equities has proven to be very short-lived, with equities well down at the close in New York. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s a reality check, with the tariff war continuing between the US and China, and the question of whether Trump will be realistic in the deals he seeks with other countries over the next 90 days. We are getting close to the end of the week with an immense amount of uncertainty, although the Aussie dollar has managed to gain ground in the midst of it all. NAB, meanwhile, has revised its outlook for the RBA, expected a more aggressive path of rate cuts. Listen in for more on that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 10th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA roller coaster session on the markets. It started yesterday during the day in Australia with massive selloffs in US bonds on the news of rising tariffs from China and the US. The US is now up to 125%, with China imposing 84% from tomorrow. NAB’s Ken Crompton says if there was a Laffer Curve for tariffs we are well beyond the point where revenue keeps rising. But late in the session President Trump announced a 90-day delay on some of the heftier tariffs – China excepted. Elsewhere a 10% tariff will apply, and world leaders have three months to negotiate. That’s resulted in a record turnaround in US equity markets, although bond markets are a little less convinced.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe full set of US tariffs applies from midnight tonight in the US (2pm Sydney and Melbourne). Including the hefty ones with China. As NAB’s Sally Auld says, the China tariff is so high its basically an acknowledgement that they don’t want to trade with China anymore, unless a deal is done. There has been more talk of potential deals. If any of them come to pass it will be an indication that the Trump administration is willing to negotiate, rather than slavishly sticking to a principal of completely balancing trade with each country. Who knows? Certainly, the optimism in the markets early on in the session quickly diminished and stock markets closed well down in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 8th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were momentarily excited earlier when it seemed that the President might be delaying tariffs for 90 days. Up to that point US equities were continuing to spiral lower, but newfound optimism that Trump might moderate his approach saw a swift reversal. When it emerged that the story was nothing but fake news and, if anything, the President was digging his heals in harder, markets didn’t immediately return to their session lows. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says part of that could be because more CEOs are speaking out against the tariffs and that could force the plans to be rolled back. But, Phil asks, does that mean market have further to go if it becomes clear that the tariffs will stick, and go beyond a temporary negotiating tool. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 7th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn a world gone a little bit crazy, the only question is, how much crazier can it get? China has been the first to hit back at the US with retaliatory tariffs applied from April 10th. EU trade ministers are meeting today to discuss the next steps. If compromises aren’t found, what happens next? NAB’s Rodrig Catril says they are not forecasting a US recession just yet, although some are – like JP Morgan, for example. Jerome Powell was reasonably circumspect on Friday, saying the higher tariffs could prolong inflation w which could delay the Fed’s response to an economic downturn. Ironically, non-farm payrolls showed a US economy strengthening, but it seems the President is prepared to jeopardise short term economic stability in exchange for a significant change in the pattern of international trade. If that’s’ the case, negotiated deals this week seem unlikely. Hosted on Acast. See a

Friday 4th April 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week TCorp, the NSW Treasury Corporation, put out a report on the evolving financial landscape. They certainly picked an interesting week to launch it. Phil talks to TCorp’s chief economist Brian Redican about how Trump’s approach to trade has created uncertainty and how Australia, like other nations, will be looking for trade partners with the same attitude to free trade. And how, with less trade exposure to the US than the likes of Europe and Canada, and a rich seam of rare earth minerals, could this new trade environment could be beneficial for Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou’ll know by now that President Trump’s tariff regime was worse than many had expected, even though Australia got off relatively lightly. You might also be aware that, despite the Presidential claims, the numbers were not based on the tariffs charged by supplier nations, but on a relatively crude formula based on the value of exports to the US against the US balance of trade deficit with that country. That makes it rather problematic for countries to fix-lowering tariffs that might not exist in the first place. But could all this be good for Australia. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton, might we be one part of the world where inflation is contained, and interest rates continue their expected downward trajectory? They also talk about non-farm payrolls, because that’s happening today as well. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump’s announcement in the Rose Garden is bad news for us. For the podcast, that is. It’s just after we publish the final edition at the US market close. So, there’s every chance you’ll know what’s happened before you listen. But what happens next? And, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, there’s more to come from President Trump, plus any retaliatory moves by other nations. Rodrigo and Phil talk about how the markets reacted in the build up to the US close. Larry Summers says the real unknown is how much damage it will do to the US economy and the difficult position it places the Fed in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets continue to dance around the uncertainty of Donld Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. There was a suggestion in the Wall Street Journal that the President might impose a 20%traiff on all imports, from everywhere, with the White House Press Secretary saying it was her understanding that the tariffs would be applied immediately. The truth is, nobody knows until Donald Trump says it, and even t hen it could change.Data wise we saw a slightly weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing number overnight, with a surprisingly high prices paid component. The JOLTS job openings data also came in weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the numbers, as well as reviewing the RBA decision, statement and press conference yesterday. Eurozone inflation also came down a little.Today, tariffs aside, we get Australian building approvals, and the ADP payrolls numbers for

Tuesday 1st April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGold hit another new high overnight on the back of the continued uncertainty about the shape and extent of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. He has suggested that it will include all countries, in some form or other. NAB’s Skye Masters says US shares did regain some ground during the session, having fallen sharply after Friday’s weaker than expected US data. Oil is also higher, with the US President threatening secondary tariffs on any country buying oil from Russia. The RBA will keep rates on hold today, and Skye says it’ll be interesting to see if the governor pushes back on current market pricing for another 70bp of cuts this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 31st March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis week will almost certainly be dominated by the implementation  of auto tariffs into the US and the announcement of further tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’ on Wednesday. Whether it’s the impact of tariffs or not, consumer spending has slowed and inflation expectations rising in data that was out for the US on Friday. Yet labour data has been holding up so far - not what you would see in a stagflation economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we could see a delay in cuts from the Fed. Certainly Mary Daly from the San Francisco Fed was saying on Friday that she’s not comfortable starting any kind of rate path declines right now. The RBA will also stay on hold on Tuesday as they wait for signs that inflation is contained in an increasingly uncertain global economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.