Housing Matters Podcast

The fed funds rate was lowered by half a percentage point for the first time since 2020. The central bank’s latest move and its plan on future rate reductions will benefit homebuyers and home sellers in the coming months. With mortgage rates remaining near the lowest level in two years, housing activity could pick up in the fall.

California home sales bounced back to the highest level in five months in July, while more listings became available. With mortgage rates reaching the lowest level since May 2023, the market should see more sales and an increase in housing supply in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the economy is expected to slow but continues to see positive growth in Q3.

With inflation easing more sustainably in the last couple months, interest rates have been trending down to the lowest level in the past five months. Despite having a softer-than-expected first half in 2024, the housing market should improve in sales in the next six months. Join C.A.R. economists in this episode as they discuss the latest trend in the market and the impact of recent developments in the economy.

The Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged in the latest FOMC meeting but signaled that at least one rate cut is still on the table. Meanwhile, rate volatility has stabilized over the past couple weeks and more properties continued to be listed on the market. Home sales in the California housing market remain soft but are expected to improve in coming months.

Active listings at the state level continue to climb, with new for-sale properties rising for the fourth straight month in April. Housing supply remained tight, however, and continued to put upward pressure on prices. The statewide median price surged more than 10% from last year and set a new record high in April. As the market continues to speculate on the next Fed’s rate move and its outlook on future rate cuts, interest rates will likely remain volatile in the coming month.

With interest rates rising further in 2023, housing affordability continued to deteriorate for all ethnic groups last year. While the affordability gaps had narrowed between groups, they remained wide. The disparity will not likely improve much this year, as home prices are expected to increase moderately in 2024.

Join C.A.R. economists as they discuss the Fed's rate movement, the latest market report, and recent updates on the economy. Fed officials still expect rates to come down by 75 basis points this year, despite sticky inflation in the past few months. Meanwhile, the market continues to do better as home sales grew month-over-month and year-over-year. Inventory and affordability will remain issues in coming months, but consumer sentiment is gradually improving.

California had a good start in 2024 with both housing supply and buyer demand showing signs of improvement in January. The housing market could face headwinds in the coming months though, as mortgage rates remain on the rising trend. Inflation is expected to stabilize throughout the next 12 months, however, and rates could ease again starting in the second quarter.

The housing market had a tough year in 2023 as tight supply and high costs of borrowing continued to create challenges for buyers and sellers. With rates declining to a 7-month low late last year, the market began to see an increase in activity at the start of the year, but the improvement is expected to be gradual. Rising insurance costs and uncertainty in the commercial real estate sector will remain some of the market risks in 2024.

Mortgage rates have shown improvements lately as Fed’s officials softened their tones after their latest FOMC meeting and suggested that the Central Bank could be done with rate hikes. Meanwhile, sales of existing homes in California dipped again by double-digits on a year-over-year basis in October as costs of borrowing remained elevated while supply continued to be tight.

Home sales in California declined further last month as buyers and sellers continued to struggle with the high-mortgage-interest rate landscape not seen in the last two decades. The sharp increase in the past few weeks was due primarily to the Fed’s announcement at their latest meeting that rates will be kept “higher for longer”, which dashed market participants’ hope for more significant rate cuts in 2024. As investors continue to assess the economic outlook and the uncertainty brought on by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, there will be more volatility on rates in the short term.

With Fed policymakers seeing rates staying higher for longer, what will the economy and the housing market look like in 2024? What could some of the risks be in the upcoming year? Tune in to listen to our economists discuss the latest California economic and market outlook.

Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level Since 2001, What's Next? (Episode 109) by CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS and the CENTER FOR CALIFORNIA REAL ESTATE

Join C.A.R. economists as they discuss the latest Fed rate hike in July of 2023. This is contextualized against a backdrop of an economy that remains increasing resilient to external pressures and higher interest rates with jobs and GDP still running ahead of expectations. This has also translated through to stronger home sales and rising prices in California as demand continues to outstrip supply.

Join C.A.R. economists as they discuss the results of the June 2023 Federal Reserve meeting and the expected impact on mortgage rates. They also discuss the broader macroeconomic environment including the likelihood of the U.S. dipping into recession and an update on the California housing market in May.

Join C.A.R. economists as they discuss the latest developments on the debt ceiling debate moving through congress, the implications for interest rates, and the broader macro-economic context as the Fed prepares to meet again in June for another rate decision.

Macro Check-In and Market Update by CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS and the CENTER FOR CALIFORNIA REAL ESTATE

Join C.A.R. economists as they discuss the recent failure of several California-based banks as the technology sector begins to lose momentum. They also discuss how recent events could impact future Fed rate decisions and the short and medium term trajectory for mortgage rates before turning to recent developments in the market data and what we can expect as the Spring homebuying season kicks into gear.

Join C.A.R. economists as they discuss the latest housing market data for January 2023 along with a round up of the macroeconomic news on inflation, interest rates, retail sales, and the labor market.

C.A.R. economists discuss what's in store for 2023 on the basis of the year end housing market numbers as well as the most recent economic data on consumers, inflation, interest rates, what the Federal Reserve has planned, and how this will affect the California housing market this year.