Off The Charts Football Podcast

Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders are back with an offseason show to talk about Aaron's latest articles on ESPN Insider, which show the first run of the Football Outsiders team projections.  In this episode, they go division by division to discuss which teams should improve, which should fall off, and whether they disagree with any of the objective projections.

Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders debate all things Super Bowl.  Will the Panthers be able to handle Denver's pressure better than the Patriots did?  What will Denver change if anything with their approach against Cam under center?  How can the Broncos offense avoid committing turnovers against the No. 1 turnover-forcing defense, the Panthers?

Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders breakdown the final four teams in the NFL playoffs.  Will the Broncos defense be able to limit the Patriots short passing attack?  Can the Patriots offensive line protect Brady?  What was wrong with Carson Palmer against Green Bay, and will he look better vs. the Panthers?  Should the Cardinals change their blitzing ways against Cam Newton?

Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders break down the second week of playoff games.  For the Chiefs vs. Patriots game, they discuss whether the dominant Chiefs win last week has any carryover effect.  For the Packers vs. Cardinals game, they debate whether the Packers found themselves against the Redskins and just how good David Johnson has been.  For the Seahawks vs. Panthers game, Aaron explains how the Panthers can be favored by the Seahawks still lead the Football Outsiders Super Bowl odds.  Finally, for the Steelers vs. Broncos game, they debate Roethlisberger's potential limitations, Peyton vs. Osweiler, and the improved Steelers defense.

Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders are back in the new year to preview the Wild Card games.  They discuss where these Wild Card teams measure up to previous seasons, and then they go game by game, discussing teams advantages and disadvantages for their matchups.

Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders play a game of "do the simple stats mesh with the advanced stats" with Blake Bortles of the Jaguars, Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Jets, DeAngelo Williams of the Steelers, and Dez Bryant of the Cowboys.

Greg Thomas of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders discuss the flip side of having a bunched top of the DVOA standings, the abundance of below-average teams. They discuss the stacking of teams this year as well as briefly touch on a matchup between the lowest and highest variance weekly DVOA teams. They also delve into the list of historically low Total DVOA teams that have made the playoffs and what teams from this year could join the list. Lastly, they discuss the recent changes in DVOA with the Denver Broncos and their future.

Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders debate whether the NFC North and NFC East are up for grabs.  In particular, has the Lions' and Bears' recent play put them back in the playoff mix, and does the Redskins' win over the Giants make them the best team in their division.  Finally, they close with a discussion of the suddenly bunched top of the DVOA standings.

Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders discuss two 5-5 teams who have recently entered the playoff discussion: the Houston Texans and the Tampa Bay Bucs.  For Houston, has J.J. Watt dragged this team to where it is?  With their schedule, how do their playoff odds stack up against other AFC South teams?  Could they win a Wild Card?  Meanwhile, for Tampa, how has Jameis Winston performed compared to other current QBs and rookie QBs from recent seasons?  Finally, the two go back and forth on the Patriots and Panthers, who flip-flopped in their projected chance of reaching 16-0 and winning the Super Bowl.

Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders discuss three teams with records and DVOA that are not in sync.  First, the Vikings are 7-2, but Aaron explains why schedule, sequencing, and fumble recovery luck have them at only 19th in DVOA.  Next, they talk about two teams with the opposite situation, the Chiefs and Seahawks, both of whom are among the best under-.500 teams in DVOA history.

There were several major injuries for playoff contenders in Week 9, and Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders debate the impact of Andrew Luck's injury to the Colts, Ben Roethlisberger's injury to the Steelers, and Dion Lewis's injury to the Patriots.  Then, the two discuss whether there is reason to be concerned with the Packers defense and who the first-half MVPs are according to DYAR.

With half the season over with in the NFL, Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders discuss the teams with easy and hard schedules the rest of the season and the impacts of that on the playoff race.  In addition, they break down the big Packers vs. Panthers game in Week 9 and explain how the Raiders became the 8th best team in DVOA.

Going into the game as the No. 2 and 5 DVOA teams, and coming out of it as the No. 1 and 5 DVOA teams, the Patriots and Jets continued to show why they were both so highly ranked. Greg Thomas of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders explain what went into both teams combining for such a high single-game DVOA. The two also discuss what is behind the Dolphins’ two-week turnaround and preview the Packers and Broncos matchup of the unbeatens on Sunday Night.

With their big win over the No. 1 DVOA team, the Arizona Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Steelers are showing that they can remain competitive even without Ben Roethlisberger.  Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders explain what has surprised them about the Steelers and what has made them effective.  In addition, the two discuss the undefeated Panthers and Broncos as well as the surprising No. 7 team in DVOA, the Eagles.

The New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals will not play each other this season unless they meet in the Super Bowl, but Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders still broke down the #1 and #2 teams in DVOA if they were to play each other.  Who will generate pass pressure?  Can New England stop Arizona's running attack?  Can anyone on Arizona cover Gronk?  From there, the two pivoted to talk about a pair of teams with some early-season struggles in terms of their actual records but who nevertheless top 10 in DVOA: Seattle and the New York Giants.

Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders discuss the 4-and-0 Bengals.  Does DYAR show that Andy Dalton has made improvements?  Does the team's undefeated record mesh with their DVOA standing?  Speaking of DVOA, the top four DVOA teams are well clear of the rest of the field.  Aaron explains how rare that is and what the implications of that gap are on Super Bowl chances.  Finally, the two talk breakouts players in DYAR, which include Devonta Freeman in Atlanta, Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, Eric Ebron in Detroit, and many others.

Arizona continues to dominate the DVOA rankings, and Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders explain how rare their performance has been historically.  From there, they segue into discussing the anti-Cardinals, the Chicago Bears, who have been far and away the worst team in DVOA this season.  Which of their other players could be on the trading block in addition to Jared Allen and Jon Bostic?  The Oakland Raiders have started the year 2-and-1, and Derek Carr may be taking the leap.  What do DVOA and DYAR say about him, how much better is the offensive around him, and is their defense bad enough to prevent them from making run?  Finally, the two discuss the suddenly defensive-minded Denver Broncos.  Is that defense so good that the team can succeed with the physically-declining Peyton Manning and a lack of running attack?

With their strong 2-0 start, DVOA believes Arizona is not only the best team in football but of the best 2-0 teams from the last three decades.  Are Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders buying it?  In addition, the two discuss which 0-2 teams have a chance to turn their season around and make the playoffs, whether Dallas can stay in the race without Tony Romo, and how the Falcons and Panthers measure up in the NFC South.

Following the Week 1 games, Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders discuss their biggest surprises.  How much did the Titans' big win and the Colts' big loss impact their playoff odds?  Will both the Jets and the Bills be able to consistently win with a run-heavy offense and stingy defense?  Are the 49ers much better than we anticipated?

In the inaugural episode of the Off the Charts Football Podcast, Scott Spratt of Sports Info Solutions and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders discuss the updated DVOA projections.  Why have the Packers fallen, and which NFC North teams could potentially benefit?  Why are the Rams so high?  Why are the Dolphins so low?  What is going on in the NFC South?