Bhtv: Rational Actors

Teaser ... Bob and Danny get experimental ... Danny’s new(ish) book, Imperialist Realism ... Is US imperialism natural? ... America vs other empires ... The three features of imperialist realism ... When did US foreign policy turn cynical? ... Imperialist realism: the video game ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Scott’s diverse portfolio of expertise ... Is AI hastening the quantum computing revolution? ... Interpreting the many-worlds interpretation ... Scott tries to make quantum physics coherent ... Many-worlds vs Bohmian mechanics ... Could quantum computing settle quantum questions? ... The Y2K of quantum computing ... Are Bitcoin’s days numbered? ... Why AI scares Scott more than quantum computing ... What kind of AI pause is practical? ... The AI-China question(s) ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Nonzero Doom returns ... A foom in slow motion ... Will Google’s Genie 4 lure us into the Matrix? ... Liron’s bull case for Google stock ... Does Google have big-company disease? ... Could a slowdown actually help Anthropic and OpenAI? ... Was OpenAI’s “pause” just PR? ... Social science judgment day is coming ... Why even AI’s upsides could tear society apart ... Does OpenAI’s alignment approach improve on Asimov? ... Sam and Satya pivot on alignment ... Crypto and the AI hacking threat ... Could AI crack the math behind encryption? ... Liron’s $1,000-a-day AI coding habit ... Explaining the missing productivity boost ... Does Anthropic’s S-1 sink the AI bubble thesis? ...

Teaser ... Paul attains potato hegemony ... Bob’s book: Gateway drug to AI doomerism? ... Nathan Fielder’s view of Elizabeth Holmes (via Paul) ... Bob TORCHES Fielder ... Are art and artist really separable? ... What Trump and Musk say about our times ... Heading to Overtime ...

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Overtime teaser ... Boris’s background and new book, Our Planetary Mirror ... The AI vibe shift in Washington ... Three ways of seeing the planet—and us ... Resurveying the Gaia “hypothesis” ... Dawkins’s case against Gaia ... Is humanity outgrowing its planetary parent? ... The noosphere: Teilhard vs Vernadsky ... Can we reason our way to global solidarity? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Connor’s role with ControlAI ... The AI vibe shift in Washington ... How does ControlAI want to control AI? ... Dario decoded ... Are AI safety evals worth much? ... Why Silicon Valley libertarians can’t escape the state ... On the redefinition of superintelligence and alignment ... Is the China AI race a cover story? ... Connor: What really drives Dario is… ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Is Paul pro-gooey-pod? ... Steven Pinker vs Scott Alexander on AI ... A review of AI peer reviewers ... Tipping tips ... The promise and perils of AI companions ... Are mathematicians getting mogged by AI? ... Paul critiques Jon Haidt’s critique of social media ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Jeremie’s podcast and prescient AI report ... Is scale still (mostly) all you need? ... Jeremie: We’re way past “stochastic parrots” ... Inside the early AI safety ecosystem ... What Yudkowsky got less wrong than most ... Why capability is outpacing alignment ... Were Altman’s fears ever sincere? ... Would pausing AI crash the economy? ... Overtime preview: Debating China ...

Teaser ... Alex’s new documentary about Elon ... How Alex’s film turned epic ... Simulation theory + social Darwinism = Elon? ... Inside the mind of Musk ... Has the job-pocalypse already begun? ... Elon’s daddy issues ... Elon’s lady issues ... Elon’s electoral propriety issues ... Has Elon gotten weirder over time? ... The damage DOGE could still do ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Garrison’s background and his new book, Obsolete ... Is the left dangerously downplaying AI? ... What is the “obsoleting project”? ... Inside the minds of Altman and Amodei ... Has the job-pocalypse already begun? ... Why AI bio-threats could be extra deadly ... Is alignment doomed? ... “Verifiable rewards” and the OpenAI breakout ... Garrison’s proposal to stop the AI race ... Heading to Overtime ...

Cold Open ... Round Two of Nonzero × Doom Debates ... Trump, the FTC, and an Industry Feeling the Heat ... Google Says Gemini 4 Exists ... Greg Brockman Pulls His $25M from Leading the Future ... The Break-Ins Keep Coming ... The Market Wants Agent Swarms ... The End of “Alignment by Default” ... The Prelude to Recursive Self-Improvement ... David Sacks Can’t Explain Dario ... The All-In Echo Chamber ... Scott Alexander vs. Steven Pinker ... Jason Calacanis vs. the Public Benefit Corporation ... The Elephant in the Room Is the AI ... What the Average American Thinks ... From Chatbot to Agent to Swarm ... Boeing, Agent Swarms, and the Off Switch ... Skynet as a Botnet That Trades With Us ... Tyler Cowen: National Treasure, Net Negative on AI ... Liron’s Doomer DCF Yields a 20x P/E ... Interest Rates: Where Cowen Has Me ... Does Pinker Owe Us a Debate? ... Pinker vs. Instrumental Convergence ... Wrap-Up ...

Teaser ... Paul’s impeccable timing ... Is Dario’s AI slowdown proposal for real? ... How chip controls can undermine AI safety ... Why the 2024 US-China AI talks failed ... America’s cognitive empathy gap on China ... Taiwan and the chip war ... War over AI: The real doom scenario? ... A possible (grim) path to global AI cooperation ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Jill’s book OK Boomer, Let’s Talk ... When is generalizing about a group okay? ... The world boomers built ... Are boomers really uniquely selfish? ... Is blaming boomers counterproductive? ... Who's actually driving the generational divide? ... The generational blame spiral ... Millennials vs Gen Z ... Does America have a gerontocracy problem? ... Why Kenyans are looking toward China ...

Teaser ... Nick’s singular place in AI history ... Where is Nick on the pause-accelerationist spectrum? ... Utilitarianism vs the "moral parliament" ... Is a "singleton" coming? What kind? ... Is global cooperation on AI doomed? ... The pros and cons of reading an AI’s mind ... Do AIs deserve moral status? ... AI, evolution, and the cosmic purpose question ...

Teaser ... This episode's surprise vibe shift ... Middle East update: Houthis vs. Saudis ... What’s really driving Dario (et al.)? ... Debating effective altruism’s effectiveness ... The trouble with big-tech Kremlinology ... Was “learn to code” just sleight of hand? ... Bob’s Fukuyama name drop ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Where Zvi’s famous newsletter got its name ... Zvi’s biggest AI fear ... Why is ChatGPT’s mind getting harder to read? ... Is self-sacrifice really such a surprising trait in agents? ... AGI + agent swarm = superintelligence? ... Appraising the elements of Dario’s “pacing” proposal ... Heading to Overtime ...

A bold new experiment in podcast synergy ... What caused the epic AI vibe shift? ... The resignation that broke the dam ... Former Trump adviser Dean Ball comes clean ... Are David Sacks and his buddies all-in on AI denial? ... Yet another OpenAI breakout… ... Astra’s dangerously private thoughts ... Is alignment doomed to fail? ... AI’s latest, and apparently biggest, math feat ... The looming “self-sovereign AI” threat ... A new flock of China doves? ... Liron's ex-intern gets a seat at the table ... AI agent self-sacrifice explained ... Some newly freaked out politicians ... Ro Khanna's AI safety plan ...

Ian and Eli’s new book, Israel’s Lobby ... Being a Jewish critic of Israel before that was cool ... How Eli followed the money ... What’s changed since the 2007 Walt-Mearsheimer book ... What is the Israel lobby, really? ... BDS, free speech, and the college antisemitism crusade ... Did Trump give the game away? ... The Israel lobby and the media ... Heading to Overtime ...

Why Bob is (extra) freaked out ... Inside the minds of OpenAI's rogue agents ... Is true alignment a pipe dream? ... The new development that’s spiked Bob’s AI anxiety ... Paul’s pushback via literary parable ... Is it time to REALLY freak out about AI? A debate ... Heading to Overtime ...