NAB Morning Call

Thursday 12th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTwo big bits of news overnight, First, a trade deal has been reached between the US and China, that secures supplies of China’s rare earths for the US, and allows China to import goods that had previously been blocked. But, as NAB’s Sally Auld says, it really is a statement on what was talked about in Geneva, and tariffs remain in place, at 55% on China’s exports. No surprise then, that equity markets are far from excited about it. More significant was the softer US CPI print in May. The impacts of tariffs are not making a big stamp on prices, yet, but again the market response was restrained, because its still too early to tell. PPI numbers later today might tell a different story. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK has grabbed a bit of the focus overnight. All eyes are on the US-China trade talks in London. Equities have been helped by the positive sentiment coming from US trade secretary Howard Lutnick, although NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether the US Commerce Secretary has a tendency to talk things up. Some of the biggest market moves though, relate to the UK’s employment detail was softer than expected, with a sharp rise in unemployment claims. Phil and Rodrigo also talk about the NAB Business Survey yesterday and look ahead to US CPI today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets had been preparing for a softer jobs print in the US on Friday. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk about a result that was better than expected, but there are still plenty of signs of weakness. Perhaps not enough, though, to support President Trump’s call for a one percent rate cut to add rocket fuel to the economy. Today the focus is on trade talks between  the US and China in London. It comes as data over the weekend shows just how much trade form China to  the US fell last month.  Locally, focus with be on the NAB business survey and Westpac consumer confidence numbers, and later this week US CPI is the number to watch.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th June 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Should we be worried about the long-term effects of the Trump presidency? The OECD this week downgraded global growth forecasts because of the uncertainty brought about by his tariff regime. It’s also seeing investors diluting their exposure to US assets. But is this Sell-America trade offset by the TACO trade which assumes Trump will always chicken-out.This week Phil talks to the FT’s chief economics commentator, Martin Wolf, about the Trump-factor, particularly in relation to the dollar. Key requirements of a reserve currency are safety and stability - have we just lost both of those things?  In which case, could another currency take-over, or some sort of basket of currencies, like the IMF SDR? Martin argues the second choice for a reserve currency is a long way behind the US dollar. Also, despite his extraordinary behaviour, financial

Friday 6th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere hasn’t been a lot of love lost between President Xi and President Trump, but a 90 minute phone call might be the start of a journey of reconciliation. But US equity markets seem to be responding more to the end of the Trump-Musk bromance, as threats being made to Tesla’s subsidies and government contracts, helping to pull the Telsa share price down more than 14  percent. The focus today, of course, is on non-farm payrolls. There’s some nervousness around what these numbers will reveal, particularly after the ADP numbers, and the higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks with Phil about all of this, plus the ECB and Australia’s trade and consumption data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have reacted to a softer than expected US Services ISM, which unexpectedly dipped into contraction territory (just). That’s on top of the JOLTs numbers this week that showed a rise in  unfilled vacancies, weaker manufacturing numbers earlier in the week, and the ADP jobs data overnight showing the lowest number of new hires since the pandemic. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the weaker yields in the US but not in Europe shows where the risks are as the US waits for payrolls on Friday. Phil and Gavin also discuss Australian GDP, the latest Bank of Canada meeting and today’s data releases, which includes the Caixin Services PMI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equity markets got off to a bad start when the OECD released a downgrade to its growth forecasts but NAB’s Skye Masters says there was a change in mood when the JOLTs data was released. An expected fall in job openings didn’t materialise. There was further good news in Europe, with inflation falling faster than expected, but that’s not going to have any impact on the ECB’s rate cut priced-in for this week. China’s Caixin PMI showed a slowdown in manufacturing in May, not reflected in the official numbers released at the weekend. This morning the ABS releases Australia’s Q2 GDP. Yesterday NAB revised down its pick from 0.5% to 0.2%, quite a bit below where the RBA and most of the market is sitting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 3rd June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump clearly has no intention to roll back on his doubling of steel tariffs on Wednesday. On Truth Social this morning he declared that he didn’t want America’s future to be built with “shoddy steel” from Shanghai, rather than the “strength and pride” of Pittsburgh steel. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says all this uncertainty will slow the economy, evidenced by weakness in the May ISM data for the US. Tonight’s JOLTs data will be particularly interesting. So far employers have been holding off with new hires, whilst employees are reluctant to switch jobs; all driven by uncertainty. The question is, as time goes on, which way does the labour market go? And will we get any hint of it today?   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 2nd June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, the announcement by President Trump of a doubling in steel tariffs from Wednesday happened after the US market close. OPEC+ also announced an increase in production over the week. So, the week kicks off with more uncertainty. It finishes with the latest US jobs data, will be watching keenly by those fearing a slowdown could be driving the country towards a recession. Meanwhile, there was a slab of data released on Friday, which Phil and Taylr work their way through on today’s Morning Call. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th May 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Have we seen the worst of the US-China tariff dispute? Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro seems to think so. Talking from Montreal on this weekend’s podcast, Yan explains why China needs to achieve its five percent growth target and Trump will have to deal with the economic consequences of his policies. That doesn’t mean there’s a winner and a loser. China can accommodate some of Trump’s economic demands, says Yan. The upshot is, after much volatility, we’ll arrive at a place that’s better than many investors currently fear. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US Appeals Cout has determined that Trump’s tariffs can stay, for now, but it remains a battle the President will have to fight. Kit seems markets had assumed he’d find a way to impose his tariffs anyway otherwise we would have seen more significant market moves. Th emain concern within the US seems to be how much of the new tax cuts assumed a high level of tariff revenue to compensate for the deficit. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the response, along with softer US data overnight, and to look ahead to a deluge of data out today and tonight, including retail sales for Australian and Japan, housing credit and building approvals at home, the US Core PCE and personal income and spending data, along with Canada’s GDP and China’s PMIs.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNVIDIA results show the chip manufacturer has beaten estimates on revenue, but has fallen behind on gross margin and EPS. Nonetheless, their share price was initially up in after-hours trade. It comes after a session that saw sharp falls in US and European equities. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss the RBNZ cuts, another weak long-dated bond auction, the FOMC minutes (just out) and yesterday’s Australian CPI report. Plus, some interesting observations from the Australian treasury Secretary last night. And confirmation of Trump’s hit-big then negotiate approach, that could still see us all left with a residual 10% tariff, at best. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 28th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn the US investors left for the long weekend with the sudden news of a major tariff hike on European goods just a week away. They were back at their desks on Tuesday morning with the news that that wasn’t happening - not this week anyway. The result has been a jump in US shares, coinciding with the Conference board survey also jumping back from the postponement of Liberation Day tariffs. Also today, NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains why we’ve seen a 19bp drop in 30 year Japanese yields. He also previews today’s CPI figures for Australia and the priced-in 25bp cut from the RBNZ today. But what next? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEuropean equities rose on Monday on the back of the news that the imposition of higher tariffs on Europe have been pushed back a month. Does that also mean the result will be lower than the threatened 50 percent? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the Trump technique might start to lose some of its impact as politicians and markets get used to the shock and awe approach. And ECB chief Christine Lagarde didn’t hold back in a speech on Monday talking about how “multilateral cooperation is being replaced by zero-sum thinking and bilateral power plays”. Meanwhile, there’s been another small fall in the US dollar, and a rise in the CNY and the Aussie touching its highest level for the year to date. Today the US and UK return from holidays, with consumer confidence data and durable goods orders for the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 26th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump on Friday said that negotiations were not moving with the EU and he would impose a 50 percent tariff on the EU from this coming weekend. We’re hearing now that EU President Ursula von der Leyen has spoken to the President and believes a good deal can be done if they have until July 9th. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the market reaction on Friday to the original news was a return of the Sell America theme we saw in early April – with falling equities, rising bond yields and a falling US dollar. Much of that was the result of last week’s rising fiscal concerns, but it was compounded by the tariff news on Friday. That makes the outcome of those tariff talks the key theme of what is otherwise a relatively quiet week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th May 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.We made the call to our listeners, what would you like to ask NAB CEO Andrew Irvine? This week Phil puts your questions directly to him, with topics ranging from the health of the global economy, this week’s RBA decision and NAB’s earnings results, not forgetting the perennial concern about housing affordability. Some of your questions were forthright. How do we fix the wealth gap? Why is NAB’s P/E ratio so much lower than CommBank’s? Are banks too reliant on housing loans? It was a frank discussion, that we look forward to repeating soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS bond yields rose higher still this session, before retracing their steps. Interestingly they started falling after the House passed the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, even though that is expected to add significantly to the US government deficit, which is seen as one of the reasons for the rise in bond yields in the first place.  Does this mean US bond yields could continue their upward trajectory? NAB’s a Ken Crompton says it’s not unusual to see a reassessment after the sharp response to yesterday’s weak 20-year bond auction. The PMIs for Europe and thew US didn’t carry any major surprises, but weaker than expected for Germany. Yet the German IFO showed sentiment from companies is improving. Today retail data is the focus, for New Zealand, the UK and Canada. Phil and Ken also discuss the NZ budget and Andrew Hauser’s speech last night at the Lowy Institute in Sydney. Hosted on

Thursday 22nd May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was another weak bond auction in the US overnight, pushing yields ever higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there is a risk premium being applied to US bonds, from concerns over tariffs and, perhaps more significantly, rising government debt. The Big Beautiful Bill could add significantly to the government’s debt at a time when the balance of trade is deteriorating. Phil asks, should we be worried? Also today, a bigger than expected increase in UK CPI, but how much of it is down to one-off impacts? Today, the New Zealand Budget and US and European PMIs give a suggestion of which economies are taking the biggest hit from Trump’s tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields fell significantly in Australia yesterday after the RBA’s rate cut. NAB’s Sally Auld says markets were divided as to what the central bank would do - some even thought they would keep rates on hold. NAB made the call for a 50bp cut, whereas ultimately it was just 25bp, but Sally says she feels somewhat vindicated because the board did discuss a larger move down.   Phil asks whether by the year end we could see a situation where the RBA has moved markedly lower, whilst the Fed, faced with persistence inflation, has to keep rates higher. Alongside Aussie bond yields, Japanese yields were the other big mover, although their yields were moving higher after a disappointing 20-year auction. It’s also a session that’s seen an end to the rally in US stocks. The S&P didn’t quite make it to a bull run. UK inflation will rise today, but mainl

Tuesday 20th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFairly tepid moves across equities, bonds and currencies today with very little data and not much in the way of big announcements. The Deal of the Day probably goes to the UK and EU, who have agreed to less in the way of checks and bureaucracy for British food exports, in exchange for prolonged access to UK fishing waters. It also facilitates European spending with the UK Defence sector, something that might be important as nothing concrete came out the Trump-Putin phone call today.  The RBA is expected to cut between 25bp (market consensus) and 50bp (NAB’s call), whilst Fed speakers are increasingly downplaying the idea of any cuts in the US before September at the earliest. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the day’s moves and news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.