NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 22nd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities rose to new highs in this session, buoyed by positive earnings results, but pulled back, perhaps on the reality check that Liberation Day Mark 2 is a little over a week away, The European Commission has said they will be meeting early next week to discuss counter measures if a deal isn’t reached with the US. Scott Bessent has also suggested secondary tariffs will be more seriously applied to a deal with China. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the latest trade developments, plus the follow-through from Japan’s election result, yesterday’s New Zealand CPI and what central bankers might be saying today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt looks like Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has lost his majority, according to exit polls on Sunday. NAB’s Skye Masters says it was already priced into markets, with 30-year bond yields reaching record highs last week, but it comes at a bad time as Japan tries to negotiate a trade deal with the US, with the 1st August deadline looming. A deal might be reached with the EU this week or next, but President Trump has indicated he is inclined to a base tariff of 15 – 20%, even with a deal. A low level of data means the focus this week will be on tariff news, and corporate earnings, including Tesla and Alphabet in the middle of the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Who is going to ultimately benefit from Donald Trump’s policies – the tariffs and the bIg Beautiful Bill. Phil Dobbie talks to economist Phil Suttle, in Washington DC, about the future for the US economy and the impact on tariffs om the global economy. The uncertainty will almost certainly slow down US investment, the exception being the tech sector where the FOMO effect will keep companies developing. Phil reckons there will be a haves and have nots divide, in households and in the corporate space. But what about the rest of the world? How will China and Europe adapt? And can we expect a permanent shift in global trade patterns, or will we revert to norm once President Trump has moved on? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P hit a new high today, passing 65,300for the first time. Why? Well, the economic data out over night was largely good news. Retail sales were stronger than expected in June, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index perked up, initial jobless claims fell. As Phil suggests to NAB’s Gavin Friend, there was a lot to like. The threat of looming tariffs seems to be largely ignored, as though investors don’t think they will happen. It was a less rosy picture in Australia and the UK -in both cases unemployment rose more than expected. Gavin talks through whether these numbers will have any impact on central bank decisions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday17th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump made a TV career from firing people and there has been increasing speculation lately that he is ready to dump the Fed chair. That speculation was heightened on Wednesday when lawmakers claimed he had pointed to a letter asking Jerome Powell to leave. But he denied that when quizzed by the press, saying he’ll only go if he had to because of fraud. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent describes, markets swung back and forth on the unfolding story but finished with the stock market regaining ground at the close. Also on the podcast, rising inflation in the UK and Australian employment data today alongside some key US metrics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump suggested that the latest US inflation numbers are weak and that the Fed should cut by3 points - presumably 300bp. But, as NAB’s ken Crompton outlines, the data is more likely to delay the Fed. Why? Because markets responded positively to the data initially, on further examination it’s clear that inflation is picking up in areas most impacted by tariffs. A cut at the end of the month from the Fed now looks less likely. Ken also talks to Phil about China’s mixed activity data, the optimism of analysts in Europe’s ZEW survey, yesterday’s Aussie consumer confidence number and what we can glean from US corporate earnings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOnce again, US markets seem unphased by the log list of tariffs from the US president, perhaps because he has indicated he is willing to negotiate, and it’s just seen as a negotiating tactic. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about whether we’ll see signs of the impact in US inflation data today. Yesterday’s data from China showed the resilience of their export markets, and where trade is switching to from the US. Also today, banks earnings results n the US and the UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, around this time tomorrow, trying to regain confidence in the UK as she promises to be ruthless on cutting red tape. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOver the weekend President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting from August 1st. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent suggests, it’s another delay in the implementation of tariffs and it has stopped the EU from enforcing retaliatory measures planned for this week whilst negotiations continue. More concerning for markets might be the Trump administration’s moves to oust Jerome Powell from his role at the Fed, building a legal case on the cost overrun of renovations!The focus this week will be on US CPI and Australian labour market data,plus earnings with banks reporting from tomorrow and Netflix later in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11h July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The ABS is abandoning its monthly retail trade numbers, in favour of a more in-depth analysis of consumption in the revamped monthly Household Spending report. There’s a fundamental difference between the two. The Retail Trade data was based on a time consuming survey of retailers, the Household Spending report uses real data from banks, supermarkets and car retailers.Robert Ewing is Program Manager, Business Statistical Production & Futures Branch at the ABS. Phil asks him what’s new in this report, is it accurate and what sort of enhancements can be expect down the track?  It all sounds like a big step forward, but any chance we can get it quicker? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOnce again markets have shrugged off a tariff proclamation from President Trump. 50% could be levied on imports from Brazil, not because of trade (Brazil has a deficit) but in response to a trial against former President Bolsonaro. It’s a new direction for Trump’s tariff policy, but markets have taken it in their stride, with US equities rising today. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are also questions about whether tariffs will be that damaging to the US economy after all. Evidence suggests exporters are swallowing some of their margins to keep prices low for US consumers. There’s also more Fed members suggesting the inflationary impacts could be limited. Phil and Ray also discuss the latest US jobs data  and today’s BNZ Manufacturing PMIs and UK GDP, both due out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 10th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis has to be one of the quietest sessions in quite a while. President Trump did send out more tariff letters, but avoiding alarming demands and aimed at relatively minor trading partners. There was a stronger than expected response to a 10-year Treasury auction which, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says did move yields lower, although those moves had started ahead of the auction. The Fed minutes this morning show how divided the US central bank is on how quickly to move rates - or whether to move at all this year -and the impact of tariffs on the economy. There’s also discussion about the RBNZ yesterday, China’s inflation data and what to look out for today. Spoiler alert: not much! .  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has made more proclamations, including a 50 percent tariff on copper imports. A deal is supposedly progressing with the EU, which could see trade in aircraft and parts exempt and a reduction for some car manufacturers. If the deal falls through there’s a threat that Europe’s 20% base tariff will rise to 50%. Markets have responded cautiously, perhaps too cautiously suggests NAB’s Skye Masters, who says it’ll also be interesting to see how a 10-year Treasury auction is received tonight. Phil also asks her about why the RBA decision yesterday was such a surprise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 8th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has announced a new wave of tariffs for a handful of countries, closely aligned to the Liberation Day rates. Of those announced Japan and South Korea are front and centre, each subject to a 25% base rate. 30% is being reapplied to South Africa. Although US equities are well down, NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the market response was rather tame. Perhaps because the implementation of these new rates doesn’t apply until 1st August. Maybe the rates will change. Meanwhile, locally, the focus is on the NAB Business Survey this morning, the RBA decision later. Markets have fully priced in a 25bp cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 7th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe letters go in the post today, apparently, containing the personally selected tariff that will be applied to US trading nations. The good news is that they probably won’t apply until 1st August, giving time for negotiations. Meanwhile, Scott Bessent says the US is aiming to reach a deal with 18 nations. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this all adds to uncertainty and it’s hard to imagine there won’t be volatility in markets this week. There wasn’t much response to the passing of the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, however. Markets have taken it in their stride. There’s likely to be some response to the weekend’s news that OPEC+ are upping production from next month. Ray suggests it’s a move to lower prices and gain market share. Trump’s ‘Drill Baby Drill’ might be a little less viable. Phil and Ray also look at Friday’s Australian Household Spending report and look ahead to this week’s rate de

Friday 4th July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.President Trump has fallen in approval ratings since taking office. Does that mean he’ll lose seats in the House or the Senate in the Mid-Terms next year? It’s still a way off, of course, but it would be useful to know whether the President’s policy agenda will continue at pace for a year and a half, or three and a half years.Dr Debra Leiter is an associate professor with the Department of Political Science & Philosophy at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. She says there’s an iron law of mid-term loss, where the President’s party invariably sheds support and can lose control of the Senate or the House. But, despite his falling approval ratings, there’s a chance President Trump will buck the trend. Prof. Leiter tells Phil that you get a more accurate view of the outcome if you ask voters who they think will win, not who they will vote for.

Friday 4th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded to what seemed like a strong set of payrolls numbers in the US, although the rate of new private jobs fell. Still, the unemployment rate also nudged lower. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what this means for market pricing for Fed cuts this year. The rest of the day’s data from the US were also largely positive, including the ISM Services index, the weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders.  Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed the House, meeting the deadline and adding to the positive vibes at the end of a shortened week. Today, Australia’s Household Spending Indicator is released. It’ll be interested to compare its figures with the weakness shown in the Retail Spending data published earlier in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P hit a new high, helped by a post from President Trump saying he has tied up a trade deal with Vietnam. The bad news is that the deal still hits them with tariffs of between 20 and 40%, whilst accepting US goods tariff-free. And the President says a deal with Japan is looking unlikely, but that could be simple ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market reaction to the watered-down UK’s Welfare Reform Bill that could add significantly to the UK deficit and drove bond yields much higher. The US Big Beautiful Bill, meanwhile, is struggling to get through the House of Reps. All eyes are now on jobs, with non-farm payrolls tonight, along with the weekly jobless claims. Markets reacted briefly to a big downside surprise in the ADP jobs numbers, but they are notoriously unreliable. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump's big, beautiful bill has passed through the Senate with the narrowest of margins and now goes back to the House with a chance that it will get approval by the 4th of July. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the passage of the bill could be partially responsible for the US dollar reaching a multi-year low today given the deficit implications that the bill provides. Rodrigo also discusses with Phil the latest US manufacturing ISM, what's being said at Sintra, New Zealand's latest business opinion survey and looks ahead to today's Australian retail sales numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCanada has caved (the White House’s choice of words) over their digital services tax, so trade talks can resume with the US. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what this means for other countries with the same tax - many countries in Europe, the UK and, yes, Australia too. President Trump has said he sees no reason to extend the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs, and those countries that have not negotiated in good faith will have their rates set by him next week.Scott Bessent suggested the government had no need to ramp up long term bond sales, even if the Big Beautiful Bill is likely to result in greater bond issuance. European CPI, the Caixin numbers from China and JOLTs for the US will be a focus today, along with a couple of high-powered panels at Sintra. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a lot of focus on the US this week. The Big Beautiful Bill could reach it’s finish line before Independence Day on Friday. There are reports of progress towards trade deals with the likes of the India and the EU, even if Canada’s deal talks stalled over US objections to their digital services tax. And US payroll numbers are out on Thursday (a day early this time). There’s also the ECB Central Bankers Forum in Portugal. It’s a lot to take in. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks us through it all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.