NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 22nd April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn the April 22, 2026, edition of the NAB Morning Call, Gavin Friend joins Phil Dobbie to discuss a shift toward "risk-off" sentiment as the high-stakes peace talks between the U.S. and Iran appear to have stalled. With JD Vance spotted back in Washington rather than at the negotiating table in Islamabad, and Iran officially declining to attend today's scheduled meeting, the market is bracing for the end of the ceasefire deadline tonight. The conversation highlights a jump in oil prices, with Brent crude nearly touching $100 a barrel, alongside a rise in bond yields and the U.S. Dollar. Beyond the conflict, they break down robust U.S. retail sales for March, a surprising drop in UK unemployment to 4.9%, and Kevin Warsh’s testimony before the Senate, where he staunchly defended the Fed's independence, saying he is no sock puppet to the President. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/pri

Tuesday 21st April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGeopolitical tensions are rising again, following a U.S. attack on an Iranian merchant vessel in the Gulf, which sent oil prices jumping 5–6% with Brent nearing $95 a barrel. While JD Vance leads a U.S. delegation to Islamabad for high-stakes peace talks, a question remains as to whether Tehran will participate. Kevin Warsh’s pre-prepared speech to the senate banking committee spoke of a continuance of monetary policy free from the control of government. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through all this with Phil, plus Canadian CPI, and the significance of tonight’s US retail sales numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were strong risk-on moves on Friday on the news that the Hormuz Strait had reopened. Since then, Iran has fired on vessels, and the Straits have closed again. But new talks are on the horizon if, as NAB’s Sally Auld puts it, they show up. The ceasefire officially ends Wednesday but markets aren’t pricing for President Trump’s threat to take out all  energy plants and bridges  Sally talks about how central banks are viewing the conflict and looks ahead to today’s CPI for Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th April 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, veteran macroeconomist Phil Suttle joins Phil Dobbie to dissect the "unbridled enthusiasm" of global markets as they seemingly look past a U.S. naval blockade and a precarious energy crisis to push the S&P 500 to new record highs. Suttle warns of a stark internal divergence within the U.S. economy, where a concentrated investment boom in AI and tech masks the reality of flat real disposable income for the average household. The conversation traverses the globe, examining the strategic "payoff" of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the structural hurdles stifling European productivity. Central to the discussion is the "Mike Tyson" moment for central bankers—dealing with the reality of being "hit in the mouth" by supply shocks—as they weigh the necessity of "nipping inflation in the bud" against a wo

Friday 17th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere are mixed messages about where the war in Iran is heading. President Trump says a deal is close and that Iran has agreed to surrender its enriched uranium, whilst Arab and European leaders believe it could take six months to reach a deal, hence yesterday’s Beige Book suggested companies were pursuing a wait and see strategy, holding off on major investments. Yet the Philly Fed manufacturing index overnight surged to 26.7 and initial jobless claims fell to a two-month low of 207,000. China’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, despite weaker activity data for March, and there was an upward revision to Eurozone inflation. Again, mixed messages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSally Auld talks about how global markets appear to be "buying time" as investors increasingly price out the immediate threat of a wider Middle East conflict. Following news of an extended ceasefire and the resumption of peace talks, the S&P 500 hit a new record high, underpinned by a resilient U.S. economy and ongoing AI-driven tech momentum. While the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern, there seems to be a shift back to domestic fundamentals in the US, including solid Q1 bank earnings. Locally, the focus is squarely on today's Australian Labour Force release, expected to show continued resilience with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe hope of more peace talks between the US and Iran provided a temporary reprieve, sending the NASDAQ higher and Brent crude down toward $95 a barrel. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss this and how the fragile situation is reflected in the latest NAB Business Survey, which saw a sharp fall in confidence and the IMF's updated global growth scenarios, which suggest the world economy is already tracking toward an "adverse" outcome due to sustained energy price volatility.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhile you'd expect chaos, NAB’s Ray Attrill notes that markets actually moved towards the end of the session on a positive note, spurred on by President Trump’s claims that Iranian officials are reaching out to talk peace—even if we should take that with a healthy pinch of salt. He talks to Phil about the "yo-yo" effect on the Aussie dollar, which touched 71 US cents as sentiment shifted, and the continued volatility in oil, with Brent and WTI both climbing despite staying under the $100 mark for now. They also dive into the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance on rate hikes and a sobering warning from the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey regarding the growing threats to global financial stability from the Middle East conflict. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the "stalemate" in the Middle East after ceasefire talks in Islamabad ended without resolution. The breakdown has led to a further escalation, with President Trump announcing a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while Iran warns that any military approach to the waterway will be considered a breach of the standing agreement. It’s ecpcted markets will show signs of reversal from last week's brief optimism. They also discuss a jump in U.S. CPI driven by surging gasoline prices and an end to China’s deflationary PPI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th April 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil is joined by James Bentley (Director of Sustainable Finance at NAB) and Richard Lovell (Head of Debt Markets at CEFC) to discuss how current geopolitical instability and energy price volatility are accelerating the business case for net-zero technologies. The conversation highlights the strategic partnership between NAB and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), which provides significant interest rate discounts—up to 115 basis points for on-farm emissions reduction projects—to help SMEs and farmers overcome the high upfront costs of green equipment. From large-scale green hydrogen fertilizer projects to the adoption of "no-till" farming and battery-powered construction cranes, the guests explain how these investments are shifting from environmental ideals to essential tools for operational resilience and long-term cost management. Hosted on

Friday 10th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the fragile and one-sided nature of the proposed ceasefire in the Middle East, which Rodrigo notes remains highly volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and Israel continues strikes in Lebanon. The conversation explores the "phantom" nature of the peace deal, with Iran demanding the right to continue enriching uranium and proposing a toll for passage through the Strait—conditions that remain far from any common ground with the U.S.. Beyond the conflict, they break down a worrying divergence in the U.S. economy, where Core PCE inflation rose for a second consecutive month while real consumer spending declined.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 9th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Skye Masters joins Phil Dobbie to discuss a fragile market reprieve following President Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. While the news triggered a significant relief rally—sending the Nasdaq up 2.8% and WTI oil down 17% to $91 a barrel—the optimism remains guarded as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Iran alleges violations of the agreement. Skye notes that while investors are pricing out an immediate escalation, they aren't yet pricing in a total resolution, as energy prices remain well above pre-conflict levels. The discussion also covers the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish stance on stubborn inflation and a strong Japanese payrolls print, both of which suggest central banks may still be forced to tighten despite the global geopolitical volatility. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil amidst the heightened tensions in the Middle East as President Donald Trump's 8:00 p.m. ET deadline approaches. Trump has issued a dire warning on Truth Social that a "whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran fails to comply with demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While Axios reported a "glimmer of progress" in negotiations over the last 24 hours, the situation remains critical following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Kharg Island and a petrochemical compound in Shiraz. Despite the escalatory rhetoric, global markets have remained relatively sanguine, though oil prices saw WTI rise over 1% to nearly $118 a barrel. The pair also review recent economic data, including strong discretionary spen din Australia in February, and the likely hold from the RBNZ today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTaylor Nugent joins Phil Dobbie to discuss the "ratcheting up" of geopolitical tensions as President Trump issues stark warnings and Iran threatens regional infrastructure while maintaining its closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the escalatory rhetoric, global markets showed surprising resilience over the Easter long weekend, though oil remains elevated with Brent hovering near $110 a barrel. They also dissect the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which surprised on the upside with 175k jobs added in March, even as the ISM Services index signalled underlying employment weakness and persistent price pressures. With a light data calendar ahead, the focus remains firmly on the Middle East and upcoming inflation prints from the U.S. and China. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd April 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil is joined by Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, to analyse the shifting geopolitical landscape as President Trump signals a potential wind-down of military action against Iran. Note, this was recorded ahead of Donald Trump’s address today. Haines provides a dual-lens perspective on the administration's strategy, balancing domestic political pressure to end the conflict with the urgent need to reassure Gulf allies that the job will be finished, whilst securing the Strait of Hormuz. But beyond Iran, how are Trump’s policies reflecting on global partnerships and international business. Haines discusses the "Manhattan Project 2.0" branding of AI as a national security priority and examines how a potential Democratic shift in the midterms might impact market sentiment and U.S. regulatory stability. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for

Thursday 2nd April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss the wave of optimism sweeping through global markets as speculation grows regarding a potential ceasefire in the Iran conflict. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw significant gains and oil prices dipped near $100 a barrel, the rally trimmed slightly as investors awaited a high-stakes address from President Trump. The conversation also breaks down resilient U.S. economic data, including a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing index—though Taylor notes that rising supply delivery times may reflect Middle East disruptions rather than pure demand. Additionally, the pair explore the Bank of Japan’s growing inflation expectations following the Tankan survey and a rebound in the (admittedly very choppy) Australian building approvals, painting a picture of a global economy showing surprising resilience amidst geopolitical volatility. Hosted on Acas

Wednesday 1st April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn today’s NAB Morning Call, Rodrigo Catril joins the podcast to break down a wave of market optimism following reports that President Trump is prepared to wind down U.S. military action against Iran. While the Nasdaq surged 3.3% on the news, Rodrigo notes that the situation remains volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and retaliatory threats persist from both the Houthis and Iran.Beyond the geopolitical shift, the discussion explores a rebound in China’s manufacturing PMI to 50.4 and a jump in Eurozone inflation to 2.5%, which has sparked a debate between ECB officials on whether these energy-driven shocks are short-lived. Rodrigo also points to a gradual softening in the U.S. labour market, evidenced by a decline in JOLTS job openings, as investors turn their focus toward upcoming non-farm payroll data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 31st March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs the Middle East conflict continues with no clear resolution in sight, global markets are increasingly recalibrating from a focus on short-term inflation spikes to the broader risks of a sustained economic slowdown. Phil discusses how this shifting narrative is pulling bond yields lower across the US, Europe, and the UK, with NAB’s Ken Crompton. They analyse the divergence between the "hawkish" inflation concerns of some central bankers and the growing fear among investors that prolonged high energy costs—like the anticipated $3 per liter fuel in Australia—will eventually crush consumer demand and business investment.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, driving Brent crude back toward $112 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore the shifting market narrative as investors weigh the immediate threat of surging inflation against the growing risk of demand destruction. The pair discuss the latest University of Michigan survey, which showed a sharp drop in consumer sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations, and examine why bond yields are fluctuating as markets struggle to price in a potentially protracted war. They also preview a critical week of data, including US payrolls and eurozone CPI, while noting the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers at the ECB and Bank of England as they move to anchor long-term inflation expectations in a highly volatile environment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil talks with Matthew Berg, co-founder of Local Residential, and Bill Halmarick, NAB’s Head of Real Estate, to explore the burgeoning "build-to-rent" sector and its potential to alleviate Australia’s housing affordability crisis. They discuss how this institutional model—common in the UK and US—offers tenants greater security through long-term leases and professional management, contrasting it with the traditional "mom and dad" investor market. The conversation also highlights NAB's ambitious commitment to provide $6 billion in financing for social and affordable housing by 2030, including innovative construction methods like modular housing and partnerships for "impact housing" that integrates diverse income groups within a single community. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more informatio