Collège De France (général)

Philippe AghionCollège de FranceÉconomie des institutions, de l'innovation et de la croissanceAnnée 2025-2026Japanese Economy : Demographic ChallengesTakeo Hoshi est invité par l'assemblée du Collège de France sur proposition du Pr Philippe Aghion.Takeo Hoshi : Professeur d'économie et directeur du Tokyo College, université de TokyoRésuméOne of the most pressing issues facing the Japanese economy in recent decades is the set of profound demographic changes. Japan has been experiencing simultaneous shifts: an overall decline in population, a rapid acceleration of population aging, low fertility rates, and a marked decline in the scale of internal migration. Each of these factors interacts with the economy in complex ways. In this lecture, I argue that although demographic change is often cited as the main culprit behind Japan's long stagnation, its direct impact on economic growth has been smaller than that of the slowdown in productivity growth. The exception, however, lies in the decline of internal migratio