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BONUS First Monday: How Did the BLS Get the Jobs Report So Wrong?
- Autor: Vários
- Narrador: Vários
- Editora: Podcast
- Duração: 0:17:30
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Special bonus episode. The Bureau of Labor Statistics issues massive job revisions on Friday morning. The revisions wipe out nearly 90% of previously reported gains for May and June. This raises fundamental questions about how our most trusted economic data gets calculated. In this episode, we break down how the system works. We examine why the revisions are so large. We explore what this means for understanding the real economy. Friday arrives. The BLS delivers what appears routine: 73,000 new positions added in July. But the revisions tell a different story. May's initially reported 144,000 job gains become 19,000. June's seemingly solid 147,000 drops to just 14,000. These represent 87-90% overestimates. They fundamentally alter the economic picture for those months. The BLS surveys 560,000 businesses each month. They use payroll data from the 12th of the month. But only 60-73% of those businesses respond by the initial release deadline. The remaining portion gets filled through statistical modeli